Effor.com

After finishing in fifth place in Iowa with just 10% of the vote, Ron Paul is looking ahead to New Hampshire, where he’s getting the support of about 7% of voters in the polls.  Given that New Hampshire’s motto is “Live Free or Die” Paul supporters hope that he’ll at least double those numbers and receive about 15% in the GOP primary next Tuesday.  Personally, I don’t think 15% will be enough to get him recognized as a “top tier” candidate, and I believe he needs to pull in 20% or more before he’ll be taken seriously.

However, Dr Paul does has the money to stay in until at least Super Tuesday.  Supporters have a blimp floating around New Hampshire, TV ads in South Carolina are starting, (you can watch the ad titled “Defender of Freedom” here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AmY-fW3gdc) and according to Reuters at http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS12688+05-Jan-2008+BW20080105, Paul has a new radio ad that will be airing in Alabama, California, Colorado, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Maine and North Dakota.  The 60 second radio ad can be heard here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvY7KzPTdfE

After New Hampshire comes South Carolina and Nevada, then the big Super Tuesday contests in 22 states.  Ron Paul needs a good showing in at least one of them before Super Tuesday in order to be considered a serious candidate in this front loaded primary season.  At least that’s my considered opinion - what do you think?

gk

South Carolina 

Based on what CNN and FOXNews are reporting, it looks like Huckabee will be the winner in Iowa with about 31% of the vote, followed by Romney at 23%, Thompson at 13%, McCain at 12%, Giuliani at 11%, Paul at 10%, and Hunter with less than 1%. That’s with about 40% of the precincts reporting. If these results stand, Huckabee and Romney have to be considered the front runners, with the foursome of Thompson, McCain, Giuliani, and Paul as second tier candidates - at best.

Since I had expected Paul’s supporters to be more motivated and possibly show up in higher numbers than others on a cold evening, I have to admit that I’m very disappointed in his (current) 5th place standing. That’s not going to get him into any debates, and it certainly isn’t going to build any momentum going into next week’s New Hampshire primary.

Maybe there will be a surprise later when more precincts report - but I don’t expect it.

gk