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Q: What do RB’s DeAngelo Williams, Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew, Thomas Jones, LaDanian Tomlinson, Steve Slaton, and Brian Westbrook all have in common?

A: They all scored more fantasy points in PPR leagues last year than Adrian Peterson.

I have the #1 pick in my PPR league his year.  I’ve never had the #1 pick before.  I don’t like it.  Not because of getting the first pick – I love that – it’s because of all the primo players that will get drafted before I get to pick again at #24.  Wish I could trade down, but this league doesn’t allow that.

Back to Peterson.  AP led the NFL in rushing last year with 1757 yards.  He led the league in all purpose yards with 1882.  He had 10 TD’s.  He caught 21 passes.  And he finished 9th among running backs in PPR scoring in 2008.   Freaking Ninth!

Assuming he doesn’t get injured and he has another great year, he could possibly match those stats in 2009.  But why would I draft a guy at #1 who’s barely in the top 10 in a PPR scoring system?

Who will I pick at #1? I honestly don’t know right now.  I’ve eliminated a few, including AP, but I haven’t settled on anyone.   Jones-Drew, Forte, and Jackson are being considered right now.  With some very very very slight consideration being given to a WR, such as Fitzgerald or one of  the Johnson’s, Calvin or Andre – but I can’t see that happening.  I’ve played out several draft scenario’s, and I simply can’t make that one work.

BTW:  I don’t know who I’ll pick at numbers 24 and 25 either.  But I know it won’t be AP. 

gk

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I’ve spent quite a bit of time on this, so hopefully it’ll help you in your PPR fantasy draft.  For better or worse, this is how I currently rank the top 100 NFL players for fantasy value in a PPR league.

Lots of things are taken into account here, but there are quite a few unknowns at this point.  For example, take Brandon Marshall.  (Please!)  Today the Bronco’s announced that he’s suspended for the 2 remaining pre-season games, so I have no clue how to rank him.  He’s definitely has less fantasy value today than he did yesterday, but how much less?  He missed training camp, he hasn’t played yet this year, he had off-season surgery, he has a new head coach, he has a new QB (Orton, who I think sucks, but in any case Orton is not as good a QB as Cutler was) and he’s admitted that he doesn’t know the playbook.

In short, Marshall is a huge gamble right now, no matter where you take him.  IF – and that’s a big if – he gets his shit together, he COULD be one of the top receivers in a PPR league.  But on draft day, you have to know that the guy is gonna be on the field if you draft him in the top 100.  With Marshall you simply don’t know as of today.  Watch the news and read the latest updates before drafting him.

Another example is the RBBC that Tampa Bay announced this week.  WTF?  They are planning on a 2-2-1 split of carries between the top 3 running backs.  At this moment that would mean that Graham would get 2 carries, Ward would get 2 carries, and Williams would get 1, because that’s the order of their depth chart.  I still think that Ward has the most fantasy value in a PPR league, but all of them are devalued because of the decision.   But where do they rank today?  Below is my best estimate.  (I really like Cadillac Williams, and I hope he can stay healthy, but there’s no way he’s in the top 100 as of today.)

You’ll note that this order doesn’t line up perfectly with my individual position rankings from last week.  It’s close in most cases, but while I took those into account, I tried to make this list as up to date as possible, so some players have moved up and some have moved down.   I’ll probably update this sometime before next weekend, because I’m guessing most fantasy drafts will be Labor Day weekend.  Mine are.

Enjoy!

Well, what do you think?
gk

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Good article on KFFL.com today regarding PPR value.  Check it out “Point Per Reception Perception“.

KFFL also has updated PPR rankings as of today.  Not the same as mine, but then again, they’re not me. 

It’s one of my favorite PPR sites.  Be sure to check out all their fantasy football articles at KFFL.com/fantasy-football

Note – The Average Draft Position (ADP) they show in their rankings are not correct for PPR leagues!

Update 8/26:  Here’s a different take on PPR draft strategy from FantasySharks.  Some interesting tidbits in this one, like taking Brees or Brady high – and if you don’t get either one of them, waiting until 11 QB’s are taken before getting either Matt Ryan or Matt Schaub.  It’s an excellent read, and I agree with a lot of his analysis – like letting someone else take Turner early.

Here’s a good one from another story at FantasySharks.  Not that it has anything to do with PPR, simply that I thought it was funny. They’re talking about rule changes for 2009.  Here’s a new rule:  A defensive player on the ground may no longer lunge or dive at the quarterback’s lower legs

And the commentary….   This rule was created based on the knee injury that Tom Brady sustained in the Patriots opening game last year.  This will be known as the “Brady Rule,” but actually should be called “Brady Rule 1.2” since the “Tuck Rule” is already unofficially Brady’s.

Pretty soon there will be a whole rule book developed by Brady, including how many points a team must be up by before they should stop throwing Hail Mary TD passes and when it is OK to leave your pregnant girlfriend to marry a super model.

Bonus: Brady might even make it to the second half of Game 1 this year.

gk

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Here’s my second run through offensive rankings for point per reception (PPR) leagues.  As in my first run, keep in mind that I came up with these rankings based on how valuable I think players will be overall in PPR league scoring in 2009.  If you are in a “standard” scoring league these rankings will not be useful to you.  In fact they are worse than useless.  Let me say this again – if you are in a standard scoring league (non-PPR) these rankings suck. 

In my first run at the rankings last week, I ranked the top 20 RB’s, WR’s, and QB’s, and I’m going to expand that to the top 40 this time.   You should always check for new posts in the “Fantasy” category to find updated information.  I’m tired of getting emails and comments complaining that my info is wrong because it’s out of date when the reader hasn’t bothered to check for updates.

These rankings are based on projected stats from several fantasy sites, and in some cases simply a gut feeling.

For example, I’m not a Michael Turner fan, and I think a lot of his production in 2008 came from the easy schedule Atlanta had as a result of their horrible 4 win season in 2007.  Lot’s of running backs had great stats against Detroit, KC, St Louis, Oakland, Green Bay, and New Orleans.  But when Turner faced tougher rushing defenses like Chicago, Philly, and Minnesota, he didn’t do as well.

In 2009, Turner will be facing the Giants, Jets, Philly, Miami, Dallas, Washington, San Francisco, Chicago, and New England – all of whom finished in the top half of the NFL in rushing defense last year.  So I think his PPR fantasy point total at the end of 2009 will be a lower than it was in 2008.  Maybe not a lot lower, but I don’t think there’s anyway Turner will end the year with more points than he had last year – and he finished last year with exactly 8 more PPR fantasy points (270 total) than Tomlinson and Thomas Jones (262).

Another example is Brian Westbrook.  Westbrook finished as the number 8 RB in my PPR league last year, and he’ll probably finish among the top 10 running backs in PPR leagues again this year.  But I will not draft him unless he’s available in the 4th round.  Why?  Simply because you never know when he’s going to play.  Almost every week Westbrook is listed as “questionable” or “probable” and he’s a “game time decision”.

You simply don’t know if he’s going to play – or how much he’ll play – until the game starts.   And since you have to set your lineup before the game, you have to gamble each and every week on him.  I understand that certain players like Kellen Winslow, Reggie Bush, Frank Gore, and Marion Barber are high injury risks.  I can deal with that when I KNOW they are listed as “doubtful” because I know they most likely aren’t going to play – and if they do play they won’t be a big factor in the game.  But with Westbrook, you simply don’t have a fucking clue if he’s going to play.  So Westbrook takes a big hit in my rankings.

One other thing to note – this is NOT the order in which I think players will be drafted – or should be drafted.  Just because I think Reggie Bush will finish the year in the top 10 does not mean you should draft him there!   Bush (as of today) has an average ADP of 58 in NFL.com leagues, so most likely you can get him in the 4th or 5th round.

Getting round 1 value in round 4 or 5 is how you win.   So get ANOTHER top 10 ranked RB in round 1 instead and grab Bush in round 4 or 5.   Now you’ve got 2 top ranked running backs on your team while most everyone else has just one.  With just that 1 smart pick, you’ve tremendously increased your chances of winning your league!

With those explanations out of the way, here are my PPR rankings as of August 22nd.

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I was going to title this “Fantasy Football 101″ but I think that really needs to be a discussion of basics, like “know your scoring system” and “never draft a kicker before the last round”.  I cover that here.

This post is about how to draft for value.  How to get the most bang for your buck.  How to win your league.

This started when I read some comments at one of my favorite fantasy football sites, KFFL.com, where readers were responding to their “Combination Top-100 PPR Rankings“.  Here’s what I said there:

I’m amazed at how many people posting comments don’t “get it”. These are RANKINGS, not draft positions.

For example, look at Witten, RANKED 19th overall, but with an ADP of 42.  Absolutely no one (I hope) would take Witten with the 19th overall pick, because there are others (RB’s and WR’s) you need to get that early.  But if you got him with the last pick in the 3rd round (36th overall) you’d have gotten GREAT value!

I look at it this way – take the ADP number and subtract the rank number. The bigger the difference, the better the value.  And the more likely you are to win your league.

Look at Turner – ranked 18, but going at an average draft position of 3.  I’ll be happy to let him go that early in the first round!  I’ll win my league by taking someone like Fitzgerald or Jackson at number 5 or 6, then getting a better ranked RB (like Gore or Portis) in round 2.

It’s all about the value that player gives you at a particular point in the draft.  I really like Reggie Bush in PPR, and if I can snag him in the 4rd round (his ADP is currently 44), I’ll be ecstatic!  Number 14 value with pick 44?  I’ll take that all day long.

You can read about an actual draft system called “Value Based Drafting” at many other sites, including Footballguys.com who also have an excellent fantasy football magazine you can download – for free.  Get the full 21.4 MB PDF of the magazine here.  (Click on the other link to download portions of it.)

I see people posting comments on sites all the time that say things like “Even in PPR, I don’t see AP going past #3. Let alone the 7th RB off the board. care to splain?” (This one is from the same article I referenced above on KFFL.com that motivated me to write this post.)

The person who wrote the post “Mike”, is one of the people I was writing about.  He doesn’t “get it.”  Adrian Peterson is a great running back, and he is going to be one of the top 3 picks in basically every draft this year.  Last year “All Day” led the NFL with 1757 rushing yards on 364 attempts. He also caught 21 passes for another 125 yards.  He scored 10 touchdowns.  And he finished 9th among running backs in PPR leagues!

Here is a list of running backs who scored more points in PPR leagues last year than Peterson.  In order they are: Williams, Forte, Turner, Jones-Drew, (Thomas) Jones, Tomlinson, Slaton, and Westbrook.

Back to “Mike’s” comment.  You are correct in that AP won’t go past #3.  But I wouldn’t take him with one of the first 3 picks.  There’s simply no value there.  Want to see who I’d draft with one of the first 3 picks?  Look at my personal PPR rankings.

Rankings are simply someone’s personal projection of who will finish the season with more fantasy points than the next player ranked.  I currently have Peterson ranked 6th among RB’s.   Last year was a great year for Peterson by any standard – do you think he’ll do even better this year?   He could finish as the #1 RB as far as I know – but I don’t think he will.

So I’ll let someone else take him in the top 3.  If I have one of the first 3 picks, I’ll take MJD, SJax, Forte, or Chris Johnson in a PPR league.

I don’t remember where I read this, but someone earlier this year wrote something like “Even if you absolutely, positively, 100% KNEW that DeAngelo Williams was going to be the #1 point producer in Fantasy last year, you’d have been STUPID to take him with a top 10 pick.”   Why?  Because you could have gotten him with a pick between 45 and 55 (he went at 50 in my league last year) and used that first round pick on ANOTHER top point producer – like Tomlinson, MJD, or Westbrook.

If you would have had Williams and MJD on your fantasy team last year, you would have had to REALLY screw up the rest of your draft to not be one of the best teams in your league.  You win when you take into account value at the time of your pick.  Getting first round value in round 3 or 4 is what wins championships.  Getting 5th round value in round 7 or 8 is what wins championships.

Yes, there will be injuries.  Yes, there will be unexpected surprises like Williams last year.  But by getting value with every pick in every round, you set yourself up to have a great year.

gk

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Ok, here goes….  I’ve done this in the past for myself, but I’m going to put my player rankings out there for everyone.  Hopefully the other people in my league:

• Won’t read this
• Will think I’m spoofing them with the list
• Will think my rankings are whack and ignore them

I’ll post updated rankings which take into account things like injuries and team promotions/demotions until the season starts.  Check the Fantasy Category here to see any newer fantasy stories.  I won’t be updating this particular page – that way everyone can look back and say “what a stupid asshole – why did he EVER think that Player A should be ranked higher than Player B?  He’s an idiot!”

Remember, these are MY rankings, based on various projections of player performance, the PPR scoring system in the league I play in, and – in a few cases – my gut feeling about a player.

In other words, if the draft in my league were held today, this is the order in which I would rank players. If you don’t play in a PPR (Point Per Reception) league, this ranking is worse than worthless to you – it’s way off base and it’ll screw up your team big time.  But if you’re in a standard scoring PPR league, where each reception by a running back, wide receiver, or tight end counts as a point, regardless if they gain any yardage – you should pay attention to this.

For more on my take on Fantasy Football, check out my Fantasy Page.

Scoring system is 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 1 point per 20 yards passing, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, 4 points per passing TD, and -1 point for a lost fumble or interception.

Top 20 Running Backs:

Top 20 Wide Receivers:

Top 20 Quarterbacks:

I haven’t gotten to the Tight End and Defenses yet. I’ll try to hit them next week.

gk

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Ok, I managed to squeak by with a win last week – as I predicted based on the matchups, it was my lowest scoring week of the year – just 99 points.  But I made it to my Fantasy Football League’s playoffs undefeated at 12-0.

Another tough test this week though, because both Reggie Bush and Stephen Jackson are now expected to play – which isn’t as good of news as it should be.  I HATE starting a player who’s been out for a few weeks on their first week back.  Plus, both Bush and Jackson are up against tough rushing defenses this week.

Note – All the point projections below are based on PPR scoring.

Except for Bush and Jackson, most of the rest of my team have decent match ups in Week 13.  That’s good, because I think it’s gonna take 130+ points to beat my opponent this week.

Chris Johnson is going against the hapless rushing defense of the Lions.  I’m expecting over 100 yards rushing, at least 3 catches for 20 to 30 yards, and a touchdown (or two!) from him this week.  With any luck White won’t steal the touchdowns as he shot off his mouth this week and Jeff Fisher isn’t known for putting up with that type of behavior.  About 20 to 25 points total.

What can I say about Anquan Boldin that hasn’t been said?  He’s The Man this year and I don’t expect that to change this week.  6 catches for 80 plus yards and at least 1 score.  He’s scored 20 or more points every week since his injury (5 consecutive weeks!) and I don’t see any reason for him to stop that streak this week.  20 plus points for Boldin this week.

The same goes for Warner.  He should get close to 300 yards again, and 2 or 3 TD’s.  20 to 25 points.  I’ve gotten very addicted to Warner and Boldin combining for about 45 points every week!

NFL.com is projecting Roddy White to get 26 points in my league.  Even though he’s playing a very bad San Diego passing D, I think that’s too much.  I’m hoping for 20 points from him.

As always, the biggest gamble on my team is Calvin Johnson.  He’s a stud – but he has no one around to help him.  He’s caught TD passes from Kitna, Orlovsky, and Culpepper this year.  He’s number 6 in scoring among WR’s in my league.  But I still don’t trust him because the opposition should triple-cover him on every play.  Detroit has no one else to throw it to – they’ve got to keep going to Megatron.

Somehow he just keeps catching passes and scoring touchdowns.  He’s been amazingly consistent, scoring 15 or more points in all but 3 games this year, but I can’t shake the nagging feeling that he’s going to get shut out one of these weeks.  And he’s going against the Titans this week, so nothing will be easy.

If I was coaching Detroit, at least once – and maybe twice – in every offensive series I’d call a play like this:  Calvin go deep.  Culpepper throw it high and as far as you can in Calvin’s direction, he’ll be there. Maybe he catches 20% of them, 60% of them drop incomplete, and you get picked 20% of the time – who cares?  You’re 0-11 for God’s sake!  Give it a shot and you could score 30 points a game!  Count the interceptions as 50 yard punts.  What have you got to lose?

I know Detroit isn’t on national TV very often, but everyone should watch Calvin Johnson play Thursday.  He’s a freak.  He’s bigger and faster than TO, and he can jump like Randy Moss – and he’s got great hands to boot!  Just imagine the points he would put on the board in Denver, San Diego, New Orleans, – or even Miami or Tampa Bay.  Note to the Lions – GET HIM THE BALL!

All that being said, I think he’ll get about 5 catches for 80 yards and a score.  15 to 20 points.

If you’re keeping score, the players I mentioned above should total about 100 points.  I think I’ll need about 30 more….

Antonio Gates is another crap shoot.  He can get 20 points – or 2.  I’ll hope (and settle) for 10.  I seriously thought about starting Bo Scaife this week, but I think the Titans will be able to run all over the Lions, so Collins won’t be throwing very much.  Gates is the safer play.

Matt Bryant is kicking against the Saints this week.  New Orleans is close to the bottom (26th) in points allowed, so Bryant should get some field goals and a few XP’s.  10 points.

The Titans defense should rack up some points this week, with bunch of sacks on Culpepper and a pick or four.  I think Detroit will score (if they can get the ball to Megatron) but maybe I can get 7 to 10 points out of them.

That puts me at 125 to 130 points.  But I haven’t talked about my second RB yet.  That’s because right now I have no fucking clue who it’ll be!

If Bush is out, I’ll probably go with Pierre Thomas.  If Bush plays, he’ll probably be too limited to get many points – but he’ll take points away from Thomas….

I currently have Justin Fargas in my lineup, but I can’t shake the feeling that he’s not gonna get a lot of carries now that McFadden is healthy.  But Oakland is going against KC, so there may be enough rushing yards for both.

The other option is Stephen Jackson.  As of right now (11:55 pm ET Wednesday) he’s expected to play this week.  But will he be limited his first week back?  He’s also going against a good Miami rushing defense.  That hasn’t stopped NFL.com from projecting 21 points for him though!  I just don’t see that happening.

So I’m hoping whoever (Bush, Thomas, Fargas, or Jackson) I end up starting, that they get me 10 to 15 points.  Fortunately they all play on Sunday, so I probably won’t decide until just before 1pm on Sunday.  I’ll read a lot between now and then (especially the local New Orleans and St Louis papers) and watch the pregame shows to see what the pro’s think, but I think it’ll come down to a gut call at the deadline.

So with any luck at all, I’ll get about 135 points.  After looking through my opponent’s lineup (McNabb, Ronnie Brown, Hillis, Fitzgerald, Wayne, Lance Moore, Cooley, Elam, and Bucs DST) I think he’ll get about 120 points – although Brown could easily go off against a pitiful Rams rushing D.  Brown could get 40 points instead of 20 and make this whole exercise meaningless.

But I’m doing my best to put the best possible lineup out there, because all that matters in the end is if I win or lose.  Just win baby!

gk

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11 weeks have gone by in the NFL so far this year, and I’m lucky enough to be 11-0 in my 12 team PPR fantasy league.  I don’t know how, because both Steven Jackson and Reggie Bush (my leading scorers through the first 7 weeks) have been out since week 8….

Anyway, our playoffs start next week so just one more win and I’ll be undefeated in the regular season.  I’ve had the #1 playoff seed locked up for a couple of weeks, so I’ve been making roster adjustments based on matchups in weeks 13 and 14.  Nothing major, just tweaking.

Things like picking up dropping kicker Matt Prater and picking Matt Bryant because Bryant has indoors cream puff matchups against Detroit and New Orleans the next 2 weeks, dropping WR Mark Bradley and picking up RB Antonio Pittman since Jackson may be out through the end of our playoffs, and dropping RB Chester Taylor and picking up WR Donnie Avery for some depth at WR.

I hope I can pull out a win this week and go undefeated but I’m doubtful of that.  Both Bush and Jackson are still out (well, Bush MAY play, but I probably won’t start him the first week back because who knows how much work he’ll get) and both Roddy White and Calvin Johnson are listed as questionable this week.

My WR’s have carried me this year.  I have Boldin (picked up in a trade for Housh the week after Boldin was injured), Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, and Donnie Avery.  We can start 3 WR’s and 2 RB’s, or 2 WR’s and 3 RB’s, so I need at least 2 healthy – and preferably 3.  In a PPR league, very few RB’s score more points than good WR’s – a lesson it seems some in my league haven’t yet learned.  They insist on starting 3 RB’s even when they have good WR’s on their bench.

For RB’s, I have the aforementioned Jackson and Bush, plus Antonio Pittman, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Johnson.  Johnson really came through for me a few times early in the year, but he hasn’t done much the past 2 weeks.  And he’s going against the Jets 4th ranked rushing defense this week.

That brings me to my main point for this week.  Look at your match ups!  Almost everyone on my team is going against tough defenses this week, so I don’t know what to expect.  Here are some examples:

• White is facing the Panther’s 6th ranked passing defense.
• Calvin Johnson has Tampa Bay and their 3rd ranked passing D.
• Boldin – and my QB Warner – have the Giants 4th ranked passing defense.
• Pierre Thomas (or possibly Bush) have the #1 ranked Green Bay rushing defense to face.
• Chris Johnson has the 4th ranked Jets rushing defense.
• Pittman has the 6th ranked Bears rushing defense.
• Antonio Gates is facing the Colt’s 5th ranked passing defense.

So my choices are pretty limited – especially since both White and Calvin Johnson are listed as questionable as I write this on Friday night.

I think I’m going to need about 105 points to win this week.  My team has averaged about 130 points per week this year, with 169 being the high in week 8, and 120 the low in week 1.  But because all my guys are facing tough defenses this week, I think this will be my lowest scoring week of the year.  Here’s how I hope to get 105 points this week.

My best guess is that Warner and Boldin will be fine – I’m expecting 20 to 25 points from both of them.  Say 45 points combined.

Calvin Johnson is another must start if he plays.  He always seems to get at least 15 points and he has the potential for a monster game every week – no matter who tries to cover him.  He’s plain awesome – imagine what he could do with a real QB throwing the ball to him!  I’m hoping for 15 points.

Roddy White is another WR who always seems to score in double digits no matter who the opposition is.  He has a “deep back bruise” whatever that is, but if he plays he’s money.  Another 15 points.

Donnie Avery is my backup at WR this week if either White or Johnson don’t play.  He should have a nice game against the Bears 30th ranked passing defense – if Bulger can stay upright long enough to throw it to him.  But I expect 15 points from him – with the possibility of a bigger game if he can break one or two for a touchdown.

So between Warner, Boldin, and Johnson/White/Avery (pick 2 depending on who starts) I’m hoping for 75 points.  My RB’s Thomas, Johnson, and Pittman (again pick 2) suck this week, and I may be hoping for too much to expect 15 points combined.

That would bring me to 90 points, meaning I need another 15 to 20 points from my TE (Gates), kicker (Bryant) and defense (Tennessee).  With any luck, Gates will get 10 points, Bryant will get 7, and the Titans D will get 5.  That would put me at 112 points, and I hope that’s enought to win!

Good luck to all this week,

gk

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