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Ok, I managed to squeak by with a win last week - as I predicted based on the matchups, it was my lowest scoring week of the year - just 99 points.  But I made it to my Fantasy Football League’s playoffs undefeated at 12-0.

Another tough test this week though, because both Reggie Bush and Stephen Jackson are now expected to play - which isn’t as good of news as it should be.  I HATE starting a player who’s been out for a few weeks on their first week back.  Plus, both Bush and Jackson are up against tough rushing defenses this week.

Note - All the point projections below are based on PPR scoring.

Except for Bush and Jackson, most of the rest of my team have decent match ups in Week 13.  That’s good, because I think it’s gonna take 130+ points to beat my opponent this week.

Chris Johnson is going against the hapless rushing defense of the Lions.  I’m expecting over 100 yards rushing, at least 3 catches for 20 to 30 yards, and a touchdown (or two!) from him this week.  With any luck White won’t steal the touchdowns as he shot off his mouth this week and Jeff Fisher isn’t known for putting up with that type of behavior.  About 20 to 25 points total.

What can I say about Anquan Boldin that hasn’t been said?  He’s The Man this year and I don’t expect that to change this week.  6 catches for 80 plus yards and at least 1 score.  He’s scored 20 or more points every week since his injury (5 consecutive weeks!) and I don’t see any reason for him to stop that streak this week.  20 plus points for Boldin this week.

The same goes for Warner.  He should get close to 300 yards again, and 2 or 3 TD’s.  20 to 25 points.  I’ve gotten very addicted to Warner and Boldin combining for about 45 points every week!

NFL.com is projecting Roddy White to get 26 points in my league.  Even though he’s playing a very bad San Diego passing D, I think that’s too much.  I’m hoping for 20 points from him.

As always, the biggest gamble on my team is Calvin Johnson.  He’s a stud - but he has no one around to help him.  He’s caught TD passes from Kitna, Orlovsky, and Culpepper this year.  He’s number 6 in scoring among WR’s in my league.  But I still don’t trust him because the opposition should triple-cover him on every play.  Detroit has no one else to throw it to - they’ve got to keep going to Megatron.

Somehow he just keeps catching passes and scoring touchdowns.  He’s been amazingly consistent, scoring 15 or more points in all but 3 games this year, but I can’t shake the nagging feeling that he’s going to get shut out one of these weeks.  And he’s going against the Titans this week, so nothing will be easy.

If I was coaching Detroit, at least once - and maybe twice - in every offensive series I’d call a play like this:  Calvin go deep.  Culpepper throw it high and as far as you can in Calvin’s direction, he’ll be there. Maybe he catches 20% of them, 60% of them drop incomplete, and you get picked 20% of the time - who cares?  You’re 0-11 for God’s sake!  Give it a shot and you could score 30 points a game!  Count the interceptions as 50 yard punts.  What have you got to lose?

I know Detroit isn’t on national TV very often, but everyone should watch Calvin Johnson play Thursday.  He’s a freak.  He’s bigger and faster than TO, and he can jump like Randy Moss - and he’s got great hands to boot!  Just imagine the points he would put on the board in Denver, San Diego, New Orleans, - or even Miami or Tampa Bay.  Note to the Lions - GET HIM THE BALL!

All that being said, I think he’ll get about 5 catches for 80 yards and a score.  15 to 20 points.

If you’re keeping score, the players I mentioned above should total about 100 points.  I think I’ll need about 30 more….

Antonio Gates is another crap shoot.  He can get 20 points - or 2.  I’ll hope (and settle) for 10.  I seriously thought about starting Bo Scaife this week, but I think the Titans will be able to run all over the Lions, so Collins won’t be throwing very much.  Gates is the safer play.

Matt Bryant is kicking against the Saints this week.  New Orleans is close to the bottom (26th) in points allowed, so Bryant should get some field goals and a few XP’s.  10 points.

The Titans defense should rack up some points this week, with bunch of sacks on Culpepper and a pick or four.  I think Detroit will score (if they can get the ball to Megatron) but maybe I can get 7 to 10 points out of them.

That puts me at 125 to 130 points.  But I haven’t talked about my second RB yet.  That’s because right now I have no fucking clue who it’ll be!

If Bush is out, I’ll probably go with Pierre Thomas.  If Bush plays, he’ll probably be too limited to get many points - but he’ll take points away from Thomas….

I currently have Justin Fargas in my lineup, but I can’t shake the feeling that he’s not gonna get a lot of carries now that McFadden is healthy.  But Oakland is going against KC, so there may be enough rushing yards for both.

The other option is Stephen Jackson.  As of right now (11:55 pm ET Wednesday) he’s expected to play this week.  But will he be limited his first week back?  He’s also going against a good Miami rushing defense.  That hasn’t stopped NFL.com from projecting 21 points for him though!  I just don’t see that happening.

So I’m hoping whoever (Bush, Thomas, Fargas, or Jackson) I end up starting, that they get me 10 to 15 points.  Fortunately they all play on Sunday, so I probably won’t decide until just before 1pm on Sunday.  I’ll read a lot between now and then (especially the local New Orleans and St Louis papers) and watch the pregame shows to see what the pro’s think, but I think it’ll come down to a gut call at the deadline.

So with any luck at all, I’ll get about 135 points.  After looking through my opponent’s lineup (McNabb, Ronnie Brown, Hillis, Fitzgerald, Wayne, Lance Moore, Cooley, Elam, and Bucs DST) I think he’ll get about 120 points - although Brown could easily go off against a pitiful Rams rushing D.  Brown could get 40 points instead of 20 and make this whole exercise meaningless.

But I’m doing my best to put the best possible lineup out there, because all that matters in the end is if I win or lose.  Just win baby!

gk

11 weeks have gone by in the NFL so far this year, and I’m lucky enough to be 11-0 in my 12 team PPR fantasy league.  I don’t know how, because both Steven Jackson and Reggie Bush (my leading scorers through the first 7 weeks) have been out since week 8….

Anyway, our playoffs start next week so just one more win and I’ll be undefeated in the regular season.  I’ve had the #1 playoff seed locked up for a couple of weeks, so I’ve been making roster adjustments based on matchups in weeks 13 and 14.  Nothing major, just tweaking.

Things like picking up dropping kicker Matt Prater and picking Matt Bryant because Bryant has indoors cream puff matchups against Detroit and New Orleans the next 2 weeks, dropping WR Mark Bradley and picking up RB Antonio Pittman since Jackson may be out through the end of our playoffs, and dropping RB Chester Taylor and picking up WR Donnie Avery for some depth at WR.

I hope I can pull out a win this week and go undefeated but I’m doubtful of that.  Both Bush and Jackson are still out (well, Bush MAY play, but I probably won’t start him the first week back because who knows how much work he’ll get) and both Roddy White and Calvin Johnson are listed as questionable this week.

My WR’s have carried me this year.  I have Boldin (picked up in a trade for Housh the week after Boldin was injured), Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, and Donnie Avery.  We can start 3 WR’s and 2 RB’s, or 2 WR’s and 3 RB’s, so I need at least 2 healthy - and preferably 3.  In a PPR league, very few RB’s score more points than good WR’s - a lesson it seems some in my league haven’t yet learned.  They insist on starting 3 RB’s even when they have good WR’s on their bench.

For RB’s, I have the aforementioned Jackson and Bush, plus Antonio Pittman, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Johnson.  Johnson really came through for me a few times early in the year, but he hasn’t done much the past 2 weeks.  And he’s going against the Jets 4th ranked rushing defense this week.

That brings me to my main point for this week.  Look at your match ups!  Almost everyone on my team is going against tough defenses this week, so I don’t know what to expect.  Here are some examples:

• White is facing the Panther’s 6th ranked passing defense.
• Calvin Johnson has Tampa Bay and their 3rd ranked passing D.
• Boldin - and my QB Warner - have the Giants 4th ranked passing defense.
• Pierre Thomas (or possibly Bush) have the #1 ranked Green Bay rushing defense to face.
• Chris Johnson has the 4th ranked Jets rushing defense.
• Pittman has the 6th ranked Bears rushing defense.
• Antonio Gates is facing the Colt’s 5th ranked passing defense.

So my choices are pretty limited - especially since both White and Calvin Johnson are listed as questionable as I write this on Friday night.

I think I’m going to need about 105 points to win this week.  My team has averaged about 130 points per week this year, with 169 being the high in week 8, and 120 the low in week 1.  But because all my guys are facing tough defenses this week, I think this will be my lowest scoring week of the year.  Here’s how I hope to get 105 points this week.

My best guess is that Warner and Boldin will be fine - I’m expecting 20 to 25 points from both of them.  Say 45 points combined.

Calvin Johnson is another must start if he plays.  He always seems to get at least 15 points and he has the potential for a monster game every week - no matter who tries to cover him.  He’s plain awesome - imagine what he could do with a real QB throwing the ball to him!  I’m hoping for 15 points.

Roddy White is another WR who always seems to score in double digits no matter who the opposition is.  He has a “deep back bruise” whatever that is, but if he plays he’s money.  Another 15 points.

Donnie Avery is my backup at WR this week if either White or Johnson don’t play.  He should have a nice game against the Bears 30th ranked passing defense - if Bulger can stay upright long enough to throw it to him.  But I expect 15 points from him - with the possibility of a bigger game if he can break one or two for a touchdown.

So between Warner, Boldin, and Johnson/White/Avery (pick 2 depending on who starts) I’m hoping for 75 points.  My RB’s Thomas, Johnson, and Pittman (again pick 2) suck this week, and I may be hoping for too much to expect 15 points combined.

That would bring me to 90 points, meaning I need another 15 to 20 points from my TE (Gates), kicker (Bryant) and defense (Tennessee).  With any luck, Gates will get 10 points, Bryant will get 7, and the Titans D will get 5.  That would put me at 112 points, and I hope that’s enought to win!

Good luck to all this week,

gk

Just a few thoughts on week 8 in the NFL regarding fantasy football.  The people I’ll talk about are mainly those I have on my team, or those who stand out to me in some way.

If anyone needs a one week fill in at RB3, give Cedric Benson a try.  He’s playing at Houston (who gives up big games to RB’s more often than Madden raves about Favre) but he’s basically worthless after that because he plays against Jacksonville, Philly, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore in the next 4 weeks.

Benson should get 15 to 20 touches for 60 to 80 yards and a couple of receptions - possibly even a TD.  Not great stats, but in the neighborhood of 8 to 12 points.

Another good possibility is Leon Washington.  Thomas Jones gets most of the carries for the Jets, but KC is bad enough that Washington will get his chances too.  Plus a few receptions because he comes in on passing situations.  60 to 80 yards, 4 or 5 receptions, probably a TD.  10 to 15 points in a PPR league.  (I picked up Washington this week to use in case Steven Jackson is a last minute scratch.)

I also have Reggie Bush at RB and he was the #1 point scorer in our PPR league unril he got hurt.  Since I also have Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson at RB, I’m not hurting too bad, but I’ve debated all week whether or not to pick up Stecker or Thomas - McAllister isn’t available, and reports are that he’s about to be suspended for 4 games for a prohibited substance (steriods) violation.

So I keep wavering on picking up Stecker or Thomas.  Stecker is the better receiver, but Thomas is a better RB.  This REALLY matters in a PPR league - not so much in standard leagues.  If Duece is suspended, Thomas is a no brainer to get lots of touches.   My gut says that Stecker is the better add, but I think I’m just gonna wait and see how it plays out this weekend in London.  The Saints are playing the Chargers (with a terrible pass defense) so I’ll just hold off and see if Stecker gets enough receptions to matter.

If the reports are true and Duece is suspended for 4 games starting next week, Thomas is a no brainer to pick up.  He was the main workhorse last year when both Duece and Bush were out, and he’d resume that role this year.

I have the Titans DST, but they’re playing Indy this week, and I’m not betting against Peyton Manning.  Sure, the Titans will probably shut down Indy’s running game - but that just means Manning will throw more often.  That’s not good for the Titans DST.  They might get a pick or 2, but Manning will complete it enough times to Clark, Wayne, and Harrison (in that order) that I wouldn’t get many points.  So I picked up the Jets DST.

While I’m on the subject of Indy, their rushing defense is ranked 28th.  Yes, I’m starting Chris Johnson this week!

Back to the DST discussion - The Jets are going against KC this week at home.  KC is without Croyle and Huard, so Thigpen is their QB.  They also don’t have Larry Johnson again, so the only legit offensive weapons they have are Gonzalez and Bowe.  The Jets should be able to contain them without too much of a problem - and all those backup starters are bound to turn it over a few times.   The Chiefs will score 10 points max, and I’m actually expecting them to be shut out.

The RB situation in New England is also something to watch.  Maroney is out for the year, Sammy Morris is hurt and probably won’t play (if he does play he won’t get all the touches) so who’s gonna be Da Man for the Patriots?

I hate trying to remember “BenJarvus Green-Ellis” so I hope it’s Faulk, but who knows?  The Patriots are about like the Bronco’s and Raiders when it comes to knowing what to expect at running back, so I’m taking a wait and see on this one.

Anquan Boldin is back after a 3 week absence due to a sinus fracture - but I’m not starting him this week.  Reports are that he’d lost 10 pounds on a liquid diet while his jaw was wired shut.  He might be good to go, but I think I’ll wait another week before putting him back in my lineup.

Speaking of the Cardinals, Warner has been everything I expected this year.  But he’s going against the Panthers this week.  After seeing how the Panthers shut down the Saints last week, Warner is gonna be benched for me this week - with or without Boldin.  I have Trent Edwards for a backup, and he should do fine against Miami’s 27th ranked passing defense.

Note to everyone on the Steve Slaton bandwagon - ride him for one more week.  He’s going against Cincy this week, but he has Minnesota and Baltimore after that.  Don’t even think about starting him for those games.

No one is better in fantasy than Westbrook - when he plays.  In a PPR league he’s Da Man.  But he’s banged up enough that (if you have him) you absolutely, positively must have Buckhalter as a handcuff.   If Westbrook doesn’t play, you can start Buckhalter with almost zero drop off in points.  By far the best handcuff in fantasyland.

Roddy White has been a stud so far this year, but he’ll be tested this week against Philly’s defense.  I’m still starting him, but I’m cutting my expectations for him this week.  Mainly because his rookie QB Ryan is gonna be under pressure all day.

That reminds me - those of you who like “Turner the Burner” better lower your expectations this week too.  Turner has been great against bad defenses, but he sucks against good ones.  Just saying.

I really like a couple of rookie WR’s, Josh Morgan and Donnie Avery.  I don’t own either right now, but I’m gonna be picking one of them up as soon as I drop the Jets DST on Tuesday.  I’ll grab another (or Camarillo) the next week when I drop Bo Scaife after Antonio Gates bye week in week 9.  And I’ll pick up another WR when Bush comes back about week 11.  In a PPR league, you cannot have too many WR’s.  Some may never start for you, but you gotta have em to play the matchups when you get to the playoffs.

Speaking of playoffs, they start in week 13 in my 12 team league.  It’s almost time to check out schedules to get the kickers and DST’s with the best matchups on my team.  I’m undefeated so far this year, so I’ve got the luxury of looking ahead right now.  By this time next week, I’ll be looking to see which kickers and DST’s has good looking matchups in weeks 13 and 14 - because that’s when it counts.

One last thought….  Never ever pick up a player without looking at the who they’re playing against during the time you expect them to be on your roster.  I don’t care who it is, a superstud RB is gonna have a bad day playing the Ravens or Vikings, and I’ve yet to see a QB or WR go off when playing Carolina.

gk

I don’t know what it says about my team when I see Total Access on the NFL Network give their top 10 sleepers for week 3 - and I have 4 of them on my fantasy team….  I think it means I have a lot of potential, but hey, they’re called sleepers for a reason.

So, what did Total Access say?  They have Ray Rice as a sleeper this week, and I have to agree.  McGahee is starting, and unless he gets hurt I just don’t see Rice getting enough touches to break out this week.  Later this year yes - but not this week.

Another is Bryant Johnson.  I agree with this one and I’m starting him this week.  The 49′ers are playing Detroit, Martz will air it out to get back at the Lions for letting him go.  Bruce will get some catches, but Bryant is the guy who will get the looks in the red zone - at least when they’re not looking for Gore.

The third sleeper they mentioned was John Carlson.   He’s still under the radar of most fantasy teams, but this guy is good.   Plus Seattle doesn’t have ANY legit wide receivers, and they need someone to throw it to against the pitiful Rams.  I’d be starting Carlson this week if Gates (my #1 TE) was on the injury report - but he’s not, so I’m going with Gates.  But I won’t be surprised if Carlson outscores Gates again this week - as he did last week.

The other “sleeper” I have is Chris Johnson.  I can’t believe they’re still calling him a sleeper though….  Have you seen him run?  Johnson makes everyone else look like they’re in slo-mo.  The dude is fast!  Every touch is a potential touchdown with that kind of speed.

He’s getting the same amount of touches as White, but he’s getting double the yardage out of those touches.  Plus he catches a few passes each week, and I’m in a PPR league.  He’s starting for me this week too - and probably every week as long as he’s healthy.

Anyway, here’s my line up for week 3:

RB - S Jackson, Bush, and Chris Johnson

QB - Warner

WR - Bryant Johnson, Calvin Johnson

TE - Gates

DST - Titans

K - Gramatica

Ok, I’ve got the bug.  I got it from a coworker when he invited me to join a fantasy football league late last summer.  I’d never played before, and to be honest, I always thought it was a bit silly.

How times change!

I got lucky with a few picks in our draft last year, did a lot of homework before each game, and got really lucky during the year a few times - like the Monday Night game when Green bay was playing Denver.   Here’s the story….

I had Greg Jennings, the guy I was playing had Bret Favre, and I was up by one point when the game went into overtime.  I really didn’t care who won the game, I wanted to beat my opponent!  I was hoping that Denver would win the toss and score, because then I’d win.  But nooooo, Green Bay wins the toss and Favre drops back to pass on the first play of OT…..

I was sunk.  I’d lose if Favre completed one or two passes for just a few yards.  I was chatting via IM with another team owner in our league and all I could think of to type was “repeat after me - throw it to jennings!” because that was the only possible way I could win.  (We have a PPR league, where the receiver gets a point for every catch, a point for every 10 yards he gains, and 6 points for a TD.  The quarterback only gets a point for every 20 passing yards and 4 points per TD.)

So just after I type the “throw it to jennings” comment on IM, Favre throws a long (about 80 yards) TD pass to Jennings.   Favre (and my opponent that week) got 8 points (4 for the yardage and 4 for the TD), while me and Jennings got 14 points (8 for the yardage and 6 for the TD) so I win “easily” by 7 points….

If I wasn’t hooked before, I was as of that week!

I think it’s the way that each week is so unpredictable.  I was in a “Pick ‘em” league a couple of years ago, and it proved fairly easy to pick a majority of the NFL teams that would win each week.  I think I had a win ratio of about 80% - which was good enough to win that league that year.

But in Fantasy Football, in any given week, some no name player (like Greg Jennings at the time) could come up big for you. 

I drafted Jason Whitten (a TE with the Cowboys) as a backup for my “main” TE Kellen Winslow in the 9th round of our draft last year!  He ended up being the top TE in our FFL, but there wasn’t much (ie any) skill involved in drafting him….  I just needed someone to play during Winslow’s bye week.  Lucky pick, ’cause I don’t think I’d ever heard of him. 

But I ended up putting him into my starting lineup much of the year because Winslow was on the injury report much of the year - and I refuse to put a player into my lineup that’s listed as probable or doubtful - no matter how often they’ve played with the same status in the past.  So Whitten started for me most weeks, and he helped me win most weeks.

To make a long story even longer, I somehow managed to win our league championship last year, going 13 and 1.  I’m definitely hooked now - take a look at the trophy on my mantle!

With that as a background - is it too early to start ranking players in order to prepare for our draft in a few months? 

I’m asking because I’ve already started my cheat sheets, I’ve already read a bunch of projected stats on other sites, and I can’t wait until draft day! 

Crap - I think that means I’m hooked….

gk