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Ok, I promised to follow up with my search for a replacement for my 32 year old GE AC and natural gas furnace, so here’s what I’ve done.

My search for impartial reliability ratings was fruitless - no one does reliability ratings on heat pumps that I can find.  In talking to the dealers that I selected (more on that in a minute) they all said that I could expect no more than 12 - possibly 15 - years of service from their favorite brand.

I asked what they had that could run for 20 years or more - regardless of how much it cost - with just normal routine maintenance.  No one had a heat pump or AC system that they thought would work that long.  I understand the reluctance to give even the implication of a 15 or 20 year warranty, but to find that there are absolutely no modern systems that can be expected to run for 20 years is a shocker - and I still don’t understand why.

The house I had in Missouri was built in 1966.  The original Carrier AC system was still working fine in 1991 when I bought it, and it ran  with no major repairs (I had to have freon added in the last 2 years) until I replaced it with another Carrier system (a 3.5 ton, 11 SEER system) in 1998.  It had worked reliably for 32 years.

The house I bought when I moved to Knoxville last year was built in 1976, and the original GE AC and natural gas furnace was still working.  I had to have it charged last year in August, and again in June this year.  I had it inspected before I bought the house, and none of the major components had been replaced - so I knew I’d need to spend money on it soon.  In other words, the original GE system installed in 1976 was still original and still working fine.  That’s 32 years of reliable heating and cooling. 

I haven’t looked at every house in this subdivision - the majority of which was built in 1975 and 1976 - but from my casual observations, at least 50% of them have the exact same GE AC unit.  And they are still running.  I can see 5 of them from my backyard.  That’s reliability.

If you bought a car in the 60’s or 70’s, it was fairly rare for it to go 100,000 miles without needing some fairly major repairs - something like a water pump, transmission, alternator/generator, or AC system would be almost guaranteed to fail before 100,000 miles or withing 5 to 7 years.  And carburetors needed cleaning and adjustment every 10K miles, plugs needed to be cleaned and gapped at replaced at 5K - and replaced at 10K.  Condensers needed replacement at least every 15 to 25 K, etc.  Lot’s of maintenance - much of it expensive - was required just to keep a car running.

On the other hand, for cars made since about the late 80’s, it’s routine for them to last for 100,000 miles with basically no maintenaince - other than changing the oil and replacing belts.  My 1995 Explorer (4WD, XLT, 4.0 V6) lasted 247,000 miles with zero major repairs.  A few belts and hoses, lot’s of oil changes, 2 spark plug changes, the alternator replaced at about 160,000 miles, but that was it.  I sold it to my sister 2 years ago, and she’s had to replace a wheel bearing.  Nothing else.  It now has over 260K miles.  Much more reliable than anything you could buy in the 60’s and 70’s.

I currently have a 2004 Explorer with about 60,000 miles (zero repairs so far) and a 1995 Cadillac STS with 201,000 miles.  The Caddy has needed a new AC compressor (at about 170K miles) and a controller computer for the transmission (at about 160K miles) but other than that, it’s been just routine oil changes, brakes, belts, hoses, etc.  Routine maintenance.  One change of spark plugs at 100K miles.  It’s running great, so I’ve put off the 200K plug change for now.  Don’t fix it if it ain’t broke! 

My question is why?  Why can I buy a car that routinely lasts twice as long as one made in 1970 - but a modern AC heat pump/furnace is only expected to last half as long as one made in 1970?

Computers, printers, cell phones, TV’s - even stuff like barbecue grills and lawn mowers - all routinely last much longer - and work much better - than they did 20 or 30 years ago.  Modern windows are much more efficient - but also stronger with smoother sliding actions and longer lasting than the crappy aluminum and vinyl windows of the 70’s and 80’s.  And windows are also very much installer dependent.   What’s different about modern AC/heat pump systems?

The best answer I’ve received so far is a couple of anecdotal stories where people assume that the modern coils and compressors are lighter and cheaper than those in the past in order to get the highest possible SEER rating.  

The installers I talked to didn’t think that was the reason, but they couldn’t come up with any other reason.  Well, one of them did say that modern electronics were more prone to failure and that they were extremely expensive to replace.  “You know, they’re run by computers now so they are more efficient, but they get hot, break down, and they’re really expensive.”

Since I work in the computer field, I know that damn near everything electronic has gotten much better/faster/cheaper over the past 20 years, so I eliminated his company from consideration.  I looked at the circuit boards he carries on his truck for replacement on service calls, and they weren’t any more complicated than the open circuit electronic fuel injection board on my 1993 John Deere 445 mower.  It’s cheap stuff that survives for years in just as harsh of an environment.  It should be less than $50 for the part, but it would probably cost a couple hundred bucks to replace.

Back to the heat pump saga.  I called my local utility company, Lenoir City Utility Board (LCUB) and asked then about certified contractors to install heat pump systems.  They sent me a list of about 35 companies certified to install systems according to their “energy right” guidelines.  

LCUB is a participant in TVA’s energy right program, and they have a 6% fixed interest financing program (for up to 10 years) going on right now for 14 SEER systems and above.  They’ll just add the payment to your electric bill.  No penalty to pay it off early.  It’s a pretty sweet deal, but even if you don’t finance the system through them, if you use an approved contractor LCUB will come out and inspect the system after it’s installed to ensure everything was done correctly…  At least according to their standards.

I spent a couple of evenings going through the list of approved contractors, looking up their companies online, running reports on the BBB site, etc.  After a few phone calls to eliminate the obivious idiots - such as the “it’s run by a computer” guy, and one who said “I can put in a very cheap builder brand (Goodman) and save you lots of money, but I can’t do more than a 3 year warranty” - I had 3 companies come out to my house to provide quotes.

All had been in business at least 15 years, and all had zero complaints (according to the BBB) in the last 3 years.  I eliminated some companies that had long track records and satisfactory BBB ratings simply because they had a large number of complaints filed. 

If they really were looking out for their customers, they would have resolved the problems before it escalated to filing a complaint with the BBB. (My web hosting side business has been around 12 years with zero complaints - I expect the same treatment from those I deal with.)  And a 10 year parts and labor warranty isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on if the company isn’t there in 3 years.  Just like when I buy stocks, I want - no I require - long track records of superior performance.

I told all 3 that I was looking for reliability as my highest priority.  I needed at least a 10 year warranty that covered everything, parts and labor, that I expected the system to work without me having to pay anything if something broke - and that if they provided what I wanted they’d never need to provide any warranty work.  In other words, I made it clear that I wanted the most reliable system they could install.

Number 2 was efficiency.  Last year we had a couple of months with $400 electricity bills during the summer, and several months with $300 gas bills for heating in the winter.  And last year wasn’t that hot - and it damn sure wasn’t a cold winter!  I wanted to cut those bills in half.  I wanted the ducts checked and replaced/repaired as needed, everything checked out to ensure proper air flow and comfort in each room, etc.

Number 3 was cost.  I wanted competitive pricing, but cost wouldn’t determine which system I bought.  I also wanted an all electric system, as natural gas prices fluctuate too much for me, and it doesn’t really get that cold in Knoxville anyway.  Last year we had a few nights that dropped to about 10 degrees, but mostly the lows were in the 20’s and 30’s during the winter.  From my research, I knew that most modern air to air heat pumps would provide all the heat we needed until about freezing, so it’ll make sense to simply disconnect our natural gas.

Anyway, first up was Cook’s Comfort Systems out of Oak Ridge.  Jawrell Cook (the owner) came out.  He measured the house, measured the windows and doors, made a diagram of the house and the size of each room, and (since the windows were obviously new) asked if I knew the rating on them.  I had saved the EPA stickers from when I had them replaced last year, so he could estimate the heat loss. 

Jawrell was very thorough, he asked a lot of questions about what I wanted, he checked out the insulation, etc.  He had a sense of humor, and he was very professional.   He quoted a 3 ton Trane XL15i system. 

I’m debating with myself whether or not to put the actual quotes on here….  Since I haven’t asked permission from any of the companies, I’ll keep the exact numbers private.  It’ll suffice to say that all 3 contractors quoted prices between $7000 and $9200.  Pricing wasn’t a major factor, because all were close - although they recommended/quoted different systems as you’ll see in a moment.

Next up was Pioneer Heating and Air Conditioning located here in Knoxville.  Chris Noe came out and did a very thorough inspection of the house - he was the only one who looked in the upstairs attic to check out the ductwork and insulation - and he quoted an Amana 4 ton system.  He provide 2 options, a 16 SEER system and a 14 SEER system, with the 16SEER costing about $1300 more.

He also provided a variable speed blower option on the 14 SEER system and said that would bring it close to 15 SEER.  The variable speed blower option was an extra $350.  (The Trane system above includes a variable speed blower, as did the 16 SEER Amana system he quoted.) 

Next up was Town and Country Heating and Air Conditioning from Maryville.  (I’m in West Knoxville, so all of these towns are within a 20 minute drive.)  Rick Fields came out and looked at the house.  He wasn’t quite as thorough as the others, but he asked a lot of questions to ensure he understood what I was looking for.  He seemed very concerned about the cost of running about 50′ of wire from the breaker box to the air handler in the garage (it’s all open crawl space between) in order to get the power for the electric heat to replace the gas furnace.  The other guys also measured the distance, but Rick seemed very concerned about it for some reason.

Anyway, he also quoted 2 systems.  An American Standard 3 ton 15 SEER and 16 SEER.  The American Standard 16 SEER was by far the most expensive system we were quoted, while the 15 SEER was about $1000 higher than the Trane 15 SEER system.  

While price isn’t my deciding factor, it is a factor, and I didn’t see anything about the American Standard system that made it $1000 better than the others.  Rick did say that they would replace the copper lines to the outdoor unit with new lines, while the others said they would flush and evacuate the existing lines, so that may be part of the price difference.  But it’s only about 30′ of open attic above the garage that the lines run through, so the cost shouldn’t be that much.  And the American Standard warranty has MUCH more fine print about exclusions than the others.

I also had “guestimates” from both Town and Country and Pioneer on installing a ground source heat pump.  Since my property is only about 1/3 of an acre, it would need to be a vertical loop system.  Both companies said that it wouldn’t make sense to do.   Town and Country sells a Florida Heat Pump (FHP) system, while Pioneer sells a Water Furnace ground source system.  

Both companies said that it would cost “between $10 and $16 per foot” to drill the well, depending on the soil conditions they encountered.  The strange part is that that Pioneer said they needed to drill 150 foot per ton of system, while Town and Country said 250 foot per ton.  Based on what I’ve read about ground source heat pumps, the 250 foot per ton is more accurate.  Anyway, a ground source system would cost at least 2 and 1/2 to 3 times as much as a standard air to air heat pump to install.  Since it would save me about $500/year more than an air to air system, the payoff just isn’t there.  I can’t justify it financially, so it ain’t happening.

I’ll wrap this up.  I liked all three companies.  They all did a thorough job of checking out what I needed and they all made sure they understood what I wanted.  I don’t think you would have any problems with any of them regarding warranty work or the quality of their installations. 

In the end I decided to go with Cook’s Comfort Systems.  The Trane system seems like the best for the money, and Jawrell seemed very customer focused.   He had the attitude that he would do whatever it took to ensure we were satisfied long after the installation was over.  That’s what I strive for in my job, and that’s something I look for in companies that I deal with when I need something done.

If anyone would like more details about any of the bids, the warranties, or the companies I checked out, just let me know.  I’ll pass along whatever I can via email to help you - I know that there isn’t much info out there about heat pumps, but hopefully I’ve provided a little bit of assistance so you won’t have to dig as much as I did.

gk

Why is it so hard to find information about the reliability of heat pumps?  I want to replace a 30 year old GE system, but it seems that no one has reliability ratings on heat pumps/central AC systems….

I can find ratings on cars, cell phones, vacuum cleaners, carpeting, computers, irrigation systems, etc.   Nothing on heat pumps.  Zip.

Consumer Reports (a site I use often) pops up on almost every search I do on the subject, but they don’t have ratings on heat pumps.  They rate window AC units and gas furnaces, but not heat pumps.  It’s absurd that no one (that I can find) seems to have reviews/reliability ratings on various manufacturer’s heat pump products.  If you can rate furnaces, why not heat pumps?

I read that newer high efficiency units have thinner tubing in the coils - which supposedly cracks easier and faster - but nowhere that gives any data to show the difference.  Just stories….

I can read hundreds of sites that talk about what a heat pump is; I can read hundreds of sites that talk about the differences between air source and ground source heat pumps; I can read hundreds of sites that opine on which type of system is better for a particular climate - but NOTHING on which brand/model is the most reliable; which brand/model historically needs the most (or fewest) repairs; which brand/model has the most features, etc.

It’s like there’s a black hole for heat pump rating/reliability information.  I live in Knoxville, TN, and there are dozens of companies selling, installing, and repairing heat pumps here, but evidently I’d need to start a site to create some independent reliability ratings for their products - because so far no one else seems to be doing it….  This area seems to be begging for the equivalent of an Edmunds.com or KBB.com. 

I’m looking for a high efficiency, reliable, air to air (or ground source, depends on if I can afford the ground source right now or not) heat pump.  It should be simple, but then I read stories where someone thinks their xxx brand system is super reliable because it’s only needed 2 motors, 3 switches, and 1 compressor replaced in 10 years (”But it was covered under warranty!”) and I want to scream at the monitor….

Reliable means not having to replace major components for at least 10 years.  Reliable means that the system (with normal maintenance) will still be running 30 years from now - just like the original GE gas furnace and AC is still running in my house - and it’s 32 years old. 

I can’t believe that the HVAC campanies haven’t made progress in reliability over 30 years - but there are ZERO sites that I can find to indicate otherwise.

I asked about reliability ratings on a HVAC forum, and I can’t believe the way some of these people treat their potential customers.   Most everyone who replied to my questions said something similar to “it’s the installer that makes the difference” as if every single manufacturer sold identical units, assembled from the same parts, on the same assembly line. 

I know that some manufacturers have different lines that are pretty much the same with only the names changed to protect the innocent, and that many use off the shelf components which are the same as another manufacturer - but assuming the installer does his job right, I want to know which manufacturer has the most reliable product - regardless of cost.  It appears that that information is a highly guarded government secret, because there ain’t no one talking.  It’s the Area 51 of consumer information.

I tried asking the question about 5 different ways, but evidently HVAC people don’t like answering a direct question, because (contrary to what some on the thread claimed) I never received an answer, and I obviously pissed them off by asking again in different ways. 

Here’s one response I received: “hey why don’t you look4nac up your a$$, whatta douche bag. if the coil cracks in a year it sould be covered under warranty, same for the compressor.”

That type of attitude (along with a couple of “don’t let the door hit you on the way out”) responses shows me that the “pro’s” in the HVAC field need to work on their customer relationship skills.  Either that or they need to stop drinking a minimum of 2 hours before posting.  I had to stop posting to the thread before I blew a gasket last night.

 I just checked the forum thread again tonight and it doesn’t get any better.  The last post as of 9:16pm ET has another potential customer asking the same question in yet another way.  He says:

Ok, he’s eliminated the installer as a variable - this answer should be easy.  Something like “I work on/install several brands, and in my experience xxx needs fewer repairs overall than xxx brand” or xxx brand is good overall, but I’ve replaced dozens of compressors on xxx model” or whatever.  

But here’s the response he got:   If you have a great installer. Then the brand he installs/prefers is the best brand for you to get from him. 

Thanks for nothing.  That’s the exact same thing as saying “if you happen to be at a Chevy dealer, buy a Chevy.  If you’re at a Mercedes dealer, buy a Mercedes.  If you’re at a Honda dealer, buy a Honda.  Are you a dumbass?”  As the Guinness commercials say “Brilliant!”

These HVAC “pros” seem to think that because it’s covered under warranty, it doesn’t matter if it breaks.   That’s not what I mean when I say “reliability”.  Reliable means that it doesn’t break in the first place. 

Reliable means the compressor is a proven unit that’s been on the market for a few years and has a repair history, the coils have been stress tested and they don’t crack, the blower and fan motors have worked for years - without needing to be replaced - even if it’s under warranty.  If most of them are made by the same people, there should be a wealth of info available.  But there isn’t.

I did find a site named RemodelHomeGuide.com that had the most popular brands - but that tells me squat about reliability. 

Just had to vent - but if you know of a site with heat pump reliability ratings, PLEASE pass it on.   I promise to share any good info I receive.  One post at the HVAC link above did point me to a generic JD Power HVAC subcontractor rating from 2 years ago - but according to the press release, the actual product only accounted for 14% of the rating.  Sales and marketing support to the subcontractors counted for 18% of the rating - and they don’t even list reliability as a factor on the report….  Pretty much worthless.

I’ll post a follow up after I have a few local companies check out my house and provide price quotes. 

I had a Trane dealer here today.  Seemed honest, he didn’t recommend the higher SEER systems (recommended an XL15i dual fuel system) for my house, and he seemed upfront about the higher cost and (what he said was) lower reliability of the XL16i and XL19i systems.  Something that any installer/repair person could’ve - but didn’t - say on the HVAC forum I mentioned.

I’ll keep you posted as to what the others say - and I promise to follow up with the results.  Maybe I’ll go ahead and start a HVAC rating site since no one else seems to do it.

gk