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Just a few random thoughts from Week 10 as I’m watching the games.

Aaron Rodgers evidently ain’t too bright, cause he can’t count to “one thousand four”.  Watching the Dallas/Green Bay game and it’s pitiful watching him get hit time after time after 4 or 5 seconds.  In the NFL, you normally only get 3 seconds – throw the freaking ball Rodgers!  He deserves to get hurt playing that stupid.

With the defense GB has this year, they could be one of the best in the league if Rodgers would make a freaking decision and throw the ball in under 4 seconds.  Instead, the probably won’t even make the playoffs.

Darrelle Revis is pretty damn good….

I watched Maurice Jones-Drew fall down at the 1 instead of going in for the TD.  That sucked in two ways:

1) Jacksonville was trailing by one.  That would’ve been a brilliant play if they’d have been winning by one, but there are no sure things in the NFL.  Garrard might’ve fumbled the next snap, could have a bad snap on the kick, the kicker could miss, etc, etc, etc.  1o different things could’ve happened that would’ve caused Jacksonville to lose that game because of  that decision.  Even tho it worked out in the end, it was dumb.

2) I have MJD on my fantasy team.  Sonofabitch cost me 6 points. 

The Cardinals need to forget about the run.  They are UNSTOPPABLE when they are throwing on every down.  When they run they get out of rhythm and don’t look good at all.  Use your strengths!

Chris Johnson is officially the best RB in the league.  He not only got 132 rushing yards, he had 100 yards on 9 receptions.  He’s so much faster than everyone else on the field it’s crazy….  I tried to trade for him this week (offered Greg Jennings, Steve Breaston, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell for him to an owner with 3 #1 RB’s but only one good WR) but I didn’t get him.  Now the trade deadline in my league has passed.  Shit.

Reggie Bush could still be a superstar – if the Saints would use him like they did today.  He’s a slightly slower version of Chris Johnson.  Or maybe a larger version of Ray Rice. 

The Saints defense is much worse without Sharper and Porter – they better get them back soon or they’ll get beat very soon.

San Diego looks so good one minute and so bad the next.  If they could stay “good” they’d be a contender for the Super Bowl.  As it stands, they’re simply another team that’ll be happy to get into the playoffs.

One of the best things that could happen to the Seahawks is if Jones is out for awhile.  That way they could use Forsett and actually have a running game.

Hey Seattle – rushing 3 and dropping 8 into coverage will get your ass picked apart by Warner.   He makes mistakes if you pressure him.

We’re into the 4th quarter and Vincent Jackson still doesn’t have a catch.

Watched the various pre-game shows this morning, and most everyone (especially Fox) was ready to annoint the Cowboys as the NFC East Champs.  At one time that might have meant something.  But with the Giant’s, Eagles, and Redskins all looking so bad lately, not so much anymore.

gk

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Just reading a player news post on NFL.com and saw this note about Derrick Mason: “He is expected to contribute the most among players who have returned from retirement.”

Sorry, I don’t see anyway to link directly to the post, so you may have to search for it.  But you gotta love the dry humor of the writer who evidently isn’t a fan of  Favre.

gk

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I just saw this site and had to post it here.  You can now purchase insurance on your fantasy football players!  They appear to be serious.  I’m gonna have some fun with the guys in my league this year with this…. 

gk

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I’ve spent quite a bit of time on this, so hopefully it’ll help you in your PPR fantasy draft.  For better or worse, this is how I currently rank the top 100 NFL players for fantasy value in a PPR league.

Lots of things are taken into account here, but there are quite a few unknowns at this point.  For example, take Brandon Marshall.  (Please!)  Today the Bronco’s announced that he’s suspended for the 2 remaining pre-season games, so I have no clue how to rank him.  He’s definitely has less fantasy value today than he did yesterday, but how much less?  He missed training camp, he hasn’t played yet this year, he had off-season surgery, he has a new head coach, he has a new QB (Orton, who I think sucks, but in any case Orton is not as good a QB as Cutler was) and he’s admitted that he doesn’t know the playbook.

In short, Marshall is a huge gamble right now, no matter where you take him.  IF – and that’s a big if – he gets his shit together, he COULD be one of the top receivers in a PPR league.  But on draft day, you have to know that the guy is gonna be on the field if you draft him in the top 100.  With Marshall you simply don’t know as of today.  Watch the news and read the latest updates before drafting him.

Another example is the RBBC that Tampa Bay announced this week.  WTF?  They are planning on a 2-2-1 split of carries between the top 3 running backs.  At this moment that would mean that Graham would get 2 carries, Ward would get 2 carries, and Williams would get 1, because that’s the order of their depth chart.  I still think that Ward has the most fantasy value in a PPR league, but all of them are devalued because of the decision.   But where do they rank today?  Below is my best estimate.  (I really like Cadillac Williams, and I hope he can stay healthy, but there’s no way he’s in the top 100 as of today.)

You’ll note that this order doesn’t line up perfectly with my individual position rankings from last week.  It’s close in most cases, but while I took those into account, I tried to make this list as up to date as possible, so some players have moved up and some have moved down.   I’ll probably update this sometime before next weekend, because I’m guessing most fantasy drafts will be Labor Day weekend.  Mine are.

Enjoy!

Well, what do you think?
gk

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Good article on KFFL.com today regarding PPR value.  Check it out “Point Per Reception Perception“.

KFFL also has updated PPR rankings as of today.  Not the same as mine, but then again, they’re not me. 

It’s one of my favorite PPR sites.  Be sure to check out all their fantasy football articles at KFFL.com/fantasy-football

Note – The Average Draft Position (ADP) they show in their rankings are not correct for PPR leagues!

Update 8/26:  Here’s a different take on PPR draft strategy from FantasySharks.  Some interesting tidbits in this one, like taking Brees or Brady high – and if you don’t get either one of them, waiting until 11 QB’s are taken before getting either Matt Ryan or Matt Schaub.  It’s an excellent read, and I agree with a lot of his analysis – like letting someone else take Turner early.

Here’s a good one from another story at FantasySharks.  Not that it has anything to do with PPR, simply that I thought it was funny. They’re talking about rule changes for 2009.  Here’s a new rule:  A defensive player on the ground may no longer lunge or dive at the quarterback’s lower legs

And the commentary….   This rule was created based on the knee injury that Tom Brady sustained in the Patriots opening game last year.  This will be known as the “Brady Rule,” but actually should be called “Brady Rule 1.2” since the “Tuck Rule” is already unofficially Brady’s.

Pretty soon there will be a whole rule book developed by Brady, including how many points a team must be up by before they should stop throwing Hail Mary TD passes and when it is OK to leave your pregnant girlfriend to marry a super model.

Bonus: Brady might even make it to the second half of Game 1 this year.

gk

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Since I’m normally sitting on my butt reading anything remotely fantasy relevant on Saturday nights, I decided to do a stream of consciousness type of post.  I’m thinking about doing this each week.  Who knows, maybe it’ll eventually become known worldwide as SNFT.   Sure it will….

It’s just getting to halftime of the  Redskins/Steelers game, and – except for a couple of plays – it’s been a pretty lame game.  Reed missed a 53 yard field goal as time expired – but there was an offsides penalty on Washington, so he got to try again from 48 yards.  He missed again.  It’s been that kind of game.

Brown, D Williams, and Garrard all had decent highlights in the Miami/Jacksonville game.  Forte looked quick for Chicago playing against what should be a good Giants defense, and Stafford didn’t look very good in the first half tonight.

What’s up with the audio on the NFL Network games?  Almost every game I’ve watched on it this year has had audio cutting out.  It may just be the HD feed, as it didn’t happen when watching a standard def broadcast of the same game.  Fortunately Theismann is announcing tonight so I don’t want to hear it anyway.  He actually said “When the defensive player grabs the offensive player it’s defensive holding” – or words to that effect.  Duh.

Anyway, the commercials are fine and never cut out.  Neither do any of my other channels on Direct TV.  Just NFL Network during the games.  Annoying as hell.  I guess it’s preseason for them too.

Some good fantasy stories on the web this week.

Fantasy Clicks on SI.com has a “PPR Spectacular” post this week.   I disagree with some of it (I’ve yet to hear an explanation of why it’s better to have a QB and WR from the same team in PPR) but it’s a good article with some great stats.

Be sure to check out the number of targets each wide receiver had last year.  In some cases that will NOT carry over to this year (think Marshall in Denver) but if you look at the receivers who received the most targets last year, you’ll notice that almost every one of them is a top fantasy receiver – especially in PPR leagues.  You can’t get yardage, receptions, or touchdowns if the QB isn’t throwing the ball in your direction….

ESPN has a writeup on a recent fantasy draft they conducted.  It’s NOT a PPR draft, so ignore the specifics if you’re in a PPR league – Reggie Bush went in round 8 as the 80th overall pick! – but I thought some trends were notable.

• You can wait on running backs this year.  With the proliferation of RBBC’s, there isn’t much difference between an RB ranked #12 and #22, or 22 and 32.
• Because of that, it’s officially ok to draft a WR in the first round  – IF you don’t have one of the first 5 or 6 picks.
• You can also wait on QB’s.  McNabb went at #92 and Cutler at 102.  Probably not 2 points a week difference between McNabb and whoever happens to finish number 3 in fantasy this year.  Use that 3rd or 4th round pick for a solid RB or WR instead.
• Get solid players in the first 4 or 5 rounds, then get creative – draft a rookie or oft injured player who has top 10 potential if…. (the stars align, player x gets hurt, blah, blah, blah).

Look at the players available in round9.  Keep in mind that it’s a 10 team league, but still….

Cooley is probably a top 5 TE, Felix Jones, Darren Sproles, and LeSean McCoy are all gonna get some fantasy points – especially in PPR -  and they are all just one twisted ankle away from being top 15 RB’s.  There’s even an official RB starter in J Jones still on the board at number 89 overall.

Chase Daniels just threw his 2nd TD pass of the night (against the third string Pitt defense) for Washington.  He’s not a typical NFL QB, and he’s certainly not buff, but he moved the team well.  (No, don’t get cute and draft him as a deep sleeper.  He’s battling for third string.)

FritoLay BBQ flavored sunflower seeds are a decent substitute for smoking.  At least it’s worked for me for the past 28 days.  Well, that and nicotine patches, nicotine gum, and Ranch flavored sunflower seeds.

I’m gonna watch the Denver/Seattle game in bed.  I’m interested in a few players in that game.  Will Orton suck as bad as he did last week?  Is Hasselbeck still ok?  How is TJ Housh adjusting to the Seattle offense and Hasselbeck?  Could Julius Jones really be a factor in fantasy this year?  I liked John Carlson last year – is he still improving?  Could Carlson really be a top 5 TE?  Will Branch ever be relevant again?  Who will be the main RB in Denver?  Will (I can’t believe I’m actually interested in this) Prater be a worthwhile kicker without Cutler there to get the offense moving?

Inquiring minds want to know…..

gk

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Here’s my second run through offensive rankings for point per reception (PPR) leagues.  As in my first run, keep in mind that I came up with these rankings based on how valuable I think players will be overall in PPR league scoring in 2009.  If you are in a “standard” scoring league these rankings will not be useful to you.  In fact they are worse than useless.  Let me say this again – if you are in a standard scoring league (non-PPR) these rankings suck. 

In my first run at the rankings last week, I ranked the top 20 RB’s, WR’s, and QB’s, and I’m going to expand that to the top 40 this time.   You should always check for new posts in the “Fantasy” category to find updated information.  I’m tired of getting emails and comments complaining that my info is wrong because it’s out of date when the reader hasn’t bothered to check for updates.

These rankings are based on projected stats from several fantasy sites, and in some cases simply a gut feeling.

For example, I’m not a Michael Turner fan, and I think a lot of his production in 2008 came from the easy schedule Atlanta had as a result of their horrible 4 win season in 2007.  Lot’s of running backs had great stats against Detroit, KC, St Louis, Oakland, Green Bay, and New Orleans.  But when Turner faced tougher rushing defenses like Chicago, Philly, and Minnesota, he didn’t do as well.

In 2009, Turner will be facing the Giants, Jets, Philly, Miami, Dallas, Washington, San Francisco, Chicago, and New England – all of whom finished in the top half of the NFL in rushing defense last year.  So I think his PPR fantasy point total at the end of 2009 will be a lower than it was in 2008.  Maybe not a lot lower, but I don’t think there’s anyway Turner will end the year with more points than he had last year – and he finished last year with exactly 8 more PPR fantasy points (270 total) than Tomlinson and Thomas Jones (262).

Another example is Brian Westbrook.  Westbrook finished as the number 8 RB in my PPR league last year, and he’ll probably finish among the top 10 running backs in PPR leagues again this year.  But I will not draft him unless he’s available in the 4th round.  Why?  Simply because you never know when he’s going to play.  Almost every week Westbrook is listed as “questionable” or “probable” and he’s a “game time decision”.

You simply don’t know if he’s going to play – or how much he’ll play – until the game starts.   And since you have to set your lineup before the game, you have to gamble each and every week on him.  I understand that certain players like Kellen Winslow, Reggie Bush, Frank Gore, and Marion Barber are high injury risks.  I can deal with that when I KNOW they are listed as “doubtful” because I know they most likely aren’t going to play – and if they do play they won’t be a big factor in the game.  But with Westbrook, you simply don’t have a fucking clue if he’s going to play.  So Westbrook takes a big hit in my rankings.

One other thing to note – this is NOT the order in which I think players will be drafted – or should be drafted.  Just because I think Reggie Bush will finish the year in the top 10 does not mean you should draft him there!   Bush (as of today) has an average ADP of 58 in NFL.com leagues, so most likely you can get him in the 4th or 5th round.

Getting round 1 value in round 4 or 5 is how you win.   So get ANOTHER top 10 ranked RB in round 1 instead and grab Bush in round 4 or 5.   Now you’ve got 2 top ranked running backs on your team while most everyone else has just one.  With just that 1 smart pick, you’ve tremendously increased your chances of winning your league!

With those explanations out of the way, here are my PPR rankings as of August 22nd.

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I watched a few preseason games the past few days, and while it’s pretty early to draw any conclusions, here are a few of my thoughts in no particular order.

• Stafford is the real deal.  If Keary Colbert could catch a cold (he had at least 3 drops) Stafford would have had some great stats.   I was very impressed with his arm strength and accuracy – a couple of times he threaded passes into very tight spots and they were perfect.
• I don’t think Culpepper will be the starter very long.
• Keary Colbert makes Braylon Edwards look like he has good hands.
• Braylon Edwards still has hands of stone.  He picked up right where he left off last year, dropping an easy TD from Quinn.
• You want a deep sleeper?  Take a look at Detroit RB Aaron Brown.  I’d never heard of him before today, but I watched him take off and outrun everyone and score.  Twice.  Brown is crazy fast – Chris Johnson kinda fast.  The other players appeared to be in slow motion fast.  I’m serious – Brown has a chance to be good.   Really good.  Appears to have good hands too.
• Tony Gonzalez is going to be a favorite target of Ryan in Atlanta.
• I’m still not a Turner fan.  I know he’s good against bad teams – I want to see him do good against a good run defense – last year his stats tanked when he face good defenses.  Atlanta has a tougher schedule this year.  Just saying.
• Roddy White is showing the effects of his holdout.  He and Ryan weren’t on the same page a couple of times.  He”l be fine by the time the season starts.
• Orton sucks.  Denver is going to regret that trade.  Marshall and Royal probably already do, and their fantasy value has to drop big time as long as Orton is the QB in Denver.
• Cutler didn’t impress me with his play either.  It’s gonna take some time for him to elevate the game of the Chicago receivers.
• Hester still doesn’t know how to run a route.
• Tomlinson looks fine, and could once again be THE guy in fantasy.
• Sproles value dropped a bit for me when I saw how well LT was making cuts.
• Hasselbeck is back – and his back appears just fine.
• Seneca Wallace also looked sharp – I guess it helps to have receivers that are able to stand upright.
• Houshmandzadeh is gonna be a favorite target in Seattle.
• So is TE John Carlson.
• Rivers looked sharp.
• So did Vincent Jackson.
• Chambers not so much.
• Gates is still a force.  Saw him line up wide right once, but a cornerback covered him well on a fly pattern.  He’s much better going over the middle where he’s covered by a linebacker.
• The Rams are not good.  Stephen Jackson is about the only thing they’ve got, and he can’t run very far without a decent offensive line.
• Brady looked fine.
• That’s great news for Moss and Welker.

That’s it for now.  Check out my other fantasy football posts if you’re bored.  Don’t forget the Fantasy Football 2009 post that’s linked at the top of every page.

gk

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I was going to title this “Fantasy Football 101″ but I think that really needs to be a discussion of basics, like “know your scoring system” and “never draft a kicker before the last round”.  I cover that here.

This post is about how to draft for value.  How to get the most bang for your buck.  How to win your league.

This started when I read some comments at one of my favorite fantasy football sites, KFFL.com, where readers were responding to their “Combination Top-100 PPR Rankings“.  Here’s what I said there:

I’m amazed at how many people posting comments don’t “get it”. These are RANKINGS, not draft positions.

For example, look at Witten, RANKED 19th overall, but with an ADP of 42.  Absolutely no one (I hope) would take Witten with the 19th overall pick, because there are others (RB’s and WR’s) you need to get that early.  But if you got him with the last pick in the 3rd round (36th overall) you’d have gotten GREAT value!

I look at it this way – take the ADP number and subtract the rank number. The bigger the difference, the better the value.  And the more likely you are to win your league.

Look at Turner – ranked 18, but going at an average draft position of 3.  I’ll be happy to let him go that early in the first round!  I’ll win my league by taking someone like Fitzgerald or Jackson at number 5 or 6, then getting a better ranked RB (like Gore or Portis) in round 2.

It’s all about the value that player gives you at a particular point in the draft.  I really like Reggie Bush in PPR, and if I can snag him in the 4rd round (his ADP is currently 44), I’ll be ecstatic!  Number 14 value with pick 44?  I’ll take that all day long.

You can read about an actual draft system called “Value Based Drafting” at many other sites, including Footballguys.com who also have an excellent fantasy football magazine you can download – for free.  Get the full 21.4 MB PDF of the magazine here.  (Click on the other link to download portions of it.)

I see people posting comments on sites all the time that say things like “Even in PPR, I don’t see AP going past #3. Let alone the 7th RB off the board. care to splain?” (This one is from the same article I referenced above on KFFL.com that motivated me to write this post.)

The person who wrote the post “Mike”, is one of the people I was writing about.  He doesn’t “get it.”  Adrian Peterson is a great running back, and he is going to be one of the top 3 picks in basically every draft this year.  Last year “All Day” led the NFL with 1757 rushing yards on 364 attempts. He also caught 21 passes for another 125 yards.  He scored 10 touchdowns.  And he finished 9th among running backs in PPR leagues!

Here is a list of running backs who scored more points in PPR leagues last year than Peterson.  In order they are: Williams, Forte, Turner, Jones-Drew, (Thomas) Jones, Tomlinson, Slaton, and Westbrook.

Back to “Mike’s” comment.  You are correct in that AP won’t go past #3.  But I wouldn’t take him with one of the first 3 picks.  There’s simply no value there.  Want to see who I’d draft with one of the first 3 picks?  Look at my personal PPR rankings.

Rankings are simply someone’s personal projection of who will finish the season with more fantasy points than the next player ranked.  I currently have Peterson ranked 6th among RB’s.   Last year was a great year for Peterson by any standard – do you think he’ll do even better this year?   He could finish as the #1 RB as far as I know – but I don’t think he will.

So I’ll let someone else take him in the top 3.  If I have one of the first 3 picks, I’ll take MJD, SJax, Forte, or Chris Johnson in a PPR league.

I don’t remember where I read this, but someone earlier this year wrote something like “Even if you absolutely, positively, 100% KNEW that DeAngelo Williams was going to be the #1 point producer in Fantasy last year, you’d have been STUPID to take him with a top 10 pick.”   Why?  Because you could have gotten him with a pick between 45 and 55 (he went at 50 in my league last year) and used that first round pick on ANOTHER top point producer – like Tomlinson, MJD, or Westbrook.

If you would have had Williams and MJD on your fantasy team last year, you would have had to REALLY screw up the rest of your draft to not be one of the best teams in your league.  You win when you take into account value at the time of your pick.  Getting first round value in round 3 or 4 is what wins championships.  Getting 5th round value in round 7 or 8 is what wins championships.

Yes, there will be injuries.  Yes, there will be unexpected surprises like Williams last year.  But by getting value with every pick in every round, you set yourself up to have a great year.

gk

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Ok, here goes….  I’ve done this in the past for myself, but I’m going to put my player rankings out there for everyone.  Hopefully the other people in my league:

• Won’t read this
• Will think I’m spoofing them with the list
• Will think my rankings are whack and ignore them

I’ll post updated rankings which take into account things like injuries and team promotions/demotions until the season starts.  Check the Fantasy Category here to see any newer fantasy stories.  I won’t be updating this particular page – that way everyone can look back and say “what a stupid asshole – why did he EVER think that Player A should be ranked higher than Player B?  He’s an idiot!”

Remember, these are MY rankings, based on various projections of player performance, the PPR scoring system in the league I play in, and – in a few cases – my gut feeling about a player.

In other words, if the draft in my league were held today, this is the order in which I would rank players. If you don’t play in a PPR (Point Per Reception) league, this ranking is worse than worthless to you – it’s way off base and it’ll screw up your team big time.  But if you’re in a standard scoring PPR league, where each reception by a running back, wide receiver, or tight end counts as a point, regardless if they gain any yardage – you should pay attention to this.

For more on my take on Fantasy Football, check out my Fantasy Page.

Scoring system is 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 1 point per 20 yards passing, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, 4 points per passing TD, and -1 point for a lost fumble or interception.

Top 20 Running Backs:

Top 20 Wide Receivers:

Top 20 Quarterbacks:

I haven’t gotten to the Tight End and Defenses yet. I’ll try to hit them next week.

gk

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