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I decided to do a page where I can put my thoughts together for the 2009 Fantasy Football season.  I haven’t decided if I’ll edit it or post updates to it – kinda depends on how much I want to type I guess….

Update 8/11/09:  Here’s my first ranking for players in a PPR league.

Check this link to always get my latest fantasy football posts.

Fantasy Football “Pro’s” probably won’t get much out of this page, as I’m planning on simply cataloging some of my thoughts here, and I’ll provide explanations for newbies as I go along.  I’ll also do some basic rankings later (when we get closer to the start of the season), based on how I think certain players will do this year.  If I don’t happen to mention your favorite player, it doesn’t mean I don’t think they’ll do well in 2009, it simply means that I’m not considering them as one of my top players in my scoring system.  Which brings me to….

Rule # 1:  Know your scoring system!

I play in a fantasy league on NFL.com, and it’s a points per reception (PPR) league, so that’s what my writing here will be geared towards.  PPR is different than “standard” scoring leagues in that running backs and receivers get an additional point per reception – duh! – instead of simply getting points (normally 1 point for every 10 yards) for the yardage.

One point per catch doesn’t sound like much, but it makes a big difference when you evaluate a running back like Michael Turner (who doesn’t catch many passes) VS Maurice Jones-Drew or Matt Forte who catch quite a few passes.  For example, look at the numbers from 2008:

Michael Turner: 377 carries for 1699 yards and 17 touchdowns, 6 receptions for 41 yards.  Turner had 17 TD’s, and 1740 yards total – and scored 270 points in my PPR league in 2008.

Matt Forte: 315 carries for 1231 yards and 8 touchdowns, 64 receptions for 484 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Forte had 12 TD’s, 1715 yards – and scored 291 points in the same league.

Forte had fewer total yards, fewer TD’s – and yet he scored more points.  I cannot emphasis this enough – KNOW YOUR SCORING SYSTEM!

The leading rusher in the NFL last year was Adrian Peterson with 1757 yards.  Peterson also added 21 catches for 125 yards.  But in my fantasy league, he ended the season in 9th place among running backs with 250 points.  Of the top 10 scorers in the league, only Turner had fewer catches than Peterson.  That’s the impact of PPR scoring on running backs.

AJ Mass of ESPN.com has a good writeup of the impact of a PPR scoring system here.

Rule # 2:  Make a plan for the draft!

There are many theories about drafting in fantasy.  One of the oldest is to takes running backs in rounds 1 and 2, then wide receivers in rounds 3 and 4.  Lately I’ve seen many people taking wide receivers – or even quarterbacks – in the first round.  I don’t agree with it, but it’s fine IF you have a plan on who to draft in later rounds.

For example, lets say you think that a running back (who should be available in round 4) is going to have a great year and be one of the best backs (in your scoring system!) in the league.   If that’s the case, there’s no problem with taking a primo wide receiver in round 2.   If you’re wrong, you won’t be in the hunt for your league championship, but if you’re right, you’ll have a giant head start on everyone else in your league.

I can’t tell you how to draft in your league, but I can tell you how to find the best strategy for your league.  Look at the top teams from the last few years in your league.   Look at what positions they drafted in rounds 1 through 4.  Odds are that if they were successful with that draft strategy, you can be as well.

Even though I just started playing 2 years ago, I’m old school regarding drafting.  I’ve drafted RB, RB, WR, WR, for the past 2 years.  I won the championship with just one loss the first year, and lost just one game last year.  Unfortunately, that one game last year was the first round of the playoffs….

There are so few “true” primary running backs left in the NFL – think Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Stephen Jackson, etc. – that you need to grab one of them when you have the chance.  That means you MUST take a RB if you have one of the first (say 7 or 8 ) picks in your draft.  You are simply stupid if you don’t, and you WILL regret it later.

Even if you have a late first round pick, I personally would take a top RB.  Let someone else take Fitzgerald, (Andre) Johnson, Brady, or Brees.  You won’t regret it, but IF you think you’ve got a RB stud sleeper in your pocket for round 3 or 4, I’m ok with it.

But with most of the NFL going to running back by committee (RBBC), I’m thinking of going for a WR in round 2 this year….  Remember, I’m in a PPR league – see Rule #1.  I haven’t decided on that for sure, but I’m leaning towards it.   Why draft a RB in round 2 if you can get a stud WR instead?  And a RB with the same (or close to the same) point potential in round 3 or 4?

Anyway, what it all boils down to is picking the player who is the best value for you in that round.  In order to do that, you absolutely must have a plan.

But how do you know which players should be available in any given round?  Good question, and that brings me to…

Rule # 3: Know the ADP (Average Draft Position) for your scoring system!

You absolutely, positively MUST know where you can expect to be able to draft a particular player.  In order to do that, you need to check out their ADP, which stands for Average Draft Position.  But you need to make sure you look at the ADP for the scoring system your team uses!

It won’t do you any good to plan on taking a RB like Ronnie Brown in the 3rd round (31st according to a standard scoring league ADP) if you’re in a PPR league where his ADP is 20th, which is the middle of the 2nd round.  Brown catches quite a few passes out of the backfield, so his value is higher in a PPR league.

An extreme example of this is a player like Reggie Bush.  He’s probably going to end the year with under 600 yards rushing, and probably fewer than 1100 yards overall.   That’s about 18th among all running backs, and his ADP in standard leagues is about 35 right now.  But since he’s likely to catch at least 60 passes, he moves up to the 10th ranked running back, with an ADP of 18 in PPR leagues.  Bush will be gone by the end of round 2 in PPR leagues, but he’ll be there in round 3 in standard scoring leagues.

Wes Welker, Chris Johnson, and Matt Forte are other examples of players who will go sooner in PPR leagues than in standard leagues.

Rule # 4: Never draft a kicker before the last round!

Kickers are too unpredictable to have any idea of how many points they may score.  They are entirely dependent on the offense being good enough to get into scoring range, but bad enough not to actually score a TD.   If your’s sucks after a week or two, pick up another one from the free agent list.  And there are 32 of them available.  Which leads to….

Rule # 5:  Never draft a defense before the last 3 rounds!

In my first fantasy football season, I drafted the Bears defense in round 5.  They were projected to be so much better than everyone else, that I thought it was worth it.  It wasn’t.  I was stupid.  San Diego had the number 1 defense that year, and they weren’t drafted until round 14.  I’m tempted to change this rule to “never draft a defense until the last 2 rounds” but defenses are a bit more predictable than kickers.

But there are still 32 of them available, and since you can’t start more than 1 defense, there are always some available.  WHich leads to….

Rule # 6:  Never draft a backup kicker or defense!

Why?  Because it would be extremely dumb, that’s why….   Seriously, there are 32 of them available, so there are always one or two decent ones available as free agents in a 10 to 14 team league.  Do not waste a draft pick on a backup kicker or defense!

Instead, use that 9th – 13th round pick to take a chance on a rookie or backup RB, WR, or QB who has the potential to break out if the stars align.  Like the backup to a RB like Tomlinson or Jackson.  If they go down due to injury, the #2 RB on that team is suddenly #1 – and almost certain to put up nice stats.

I’m also tempted to say “never draft a backup TE either” but there are times when that may be warranted.  Like if you drafted Shockey as your #1 TE.  With his injury history, he’s not likely to play the whole year, and if you have a shot at a decent TE prospect in the later rounds – say John Carlson – it’s ok to grab him.  Just remember that there will also be plenty of tight ends available as free agents, so you don’t want to spend a draft pick on a backup unless absolutely necessary.

Rule # 7:  Draft the player you want!

If you really want Jason Witten, it’s ok to draft him a round or 2 earlier than his ADP.  It’s YOUR team, so get the people you want!  You need to balance your desire for a certain player against who you could have drafted in that position.

If (for example) Witten has an ADP of 44 in your league this year, so you need to take him in round 3 in your 12 team draft to ensure you get him, you are passing up the chance of drafting WR’s like Marshall, Ochocinco, Royal, Colston, Bowe, Welker, etc….  Or RB’s like Barber, Bush, Jacobs, or Brown….

In other words, you’d better like that player a lot, because all year you’ll be thinking about what might have been if your favorite doesn’t have a good year.  But if you really like the guy, go for it!

Rule # 8: Do your homework!

You need to read and research players before your draft.  The more opinions you read, the better off you’ll be.  If you have a 2 or 3 month old magazine with you on draft day as a guide, you are screwed.

Be sure to have the latest info on draft day.  Last year Kurt Warner was announced as the AZ starter the morning of my draft.  Since he had Fitzgerald and Boldin to throw to, it didn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that Warner might have a big year.  So I drafted him 2 rounds ahead of his (at the time) ADP.  I took him with the 94th overall pick in round 8.

Warner ended up as the #5 scoring QB in our league last year, ahead of QB’s like Manning, Romo, Roethlisberger, and Bulger – all of whom were drafted earlier than Warner.  Because I had the latest information and integrated it into my draft plan, I got a steal at QB.  Because of injury concerns about Warner, I did draft Schaub as a backup a couple of rounds later, but getting a great starting QB in round 8 (which allowed me to stock up on WR’s, RB’s, and get a starting TE in earlier rounds) basically made my season.  Which leads to….

Rule # 9:  Do NOT draft a QB early!

This is a no brainer for several reasons:

1. There are 32 starting QB’s in the league, so there are plenty of decent QB’s available in later rounds – even in a 12 or 14 team league.
2. Once you get past a few big names (this year it’s Brees, Brady, Manning, and Rodgers) there isn’t much difference between the next 10 QB’s.
3. There isn’t much difference between QB’s who are (preseason) ranked #5 through #15.

Yes, I know number 2 and number 3 say the same thing – so what?  It’s important, and I guarantee that almost every league has someone who will still take a QB in the first 2 rounds.  That’s actually a GOOD thing – because it means that the dumbass who drafted a QB in round 1 or 2 DIDN’T draft a quality RB or WR – so there’s one more for you to choose from. 

I haven’t finalized my draft plan for 2009 yet (too early) but I will not – under any conceivable circumstances – draft a QB before round 7.  There just isn’t enough “upside” (there’s a word you’ll see a lot on fantasy sites!) to the QB position to justify taking one in an earlier round.  I’d much rather have more depth (and potential sleepers with “upside”) at RB and WR than a slightly better QB.

Rule #10: Have a blast!

Above all, remember that this is FANTASY football.   You aren’t actually playing, and you won’t win millions of dollars or get to say “I’m going to Disneyland!” if you win.  Unless you’re in a big money league, in which case you aren’t getting any useful info from this blog post anyway…. 

Talk some smack to the other team owners in your league, tell them that they suck and they couldn’t draft their way out of a wet paper bag, that (insert their first round pick name here) is highly OVER-RATED (just like you’d say it at a basketball game), send the entire league an email saying “I’d like to thank all you non-fantasy-football-playing-lemmings for doing exactly what I thought you would at the draft, thus allowing me to get the exact players to allow me to kick your collectives asses this year!” or whatever.

Just do it.  Have a plan and have fun.  That’s why we play the game!

gk

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