Effor.com

As I was sending an email responding to a reader tonight, I happened to realize that we didn’t have a privacy policy posted on Effor.com.   Oops!

Suffice it to say that it was an oversight, and that Effor.com has never - and will never - sell or distribute your personal information or email address to any third party.   I’ve added a link to our privacy policy to the top of every page.

The policy is short and sweet, so it won’t take long to read.  You can check it out here: Privacy Policy

Feel free to post an anonymous comment if you prefer.  I enabled anonymous comments recently after installing an auto spam filter that has been excellent so far.

gk

The Knoxville News Sentinel deleted a lot of comments on its’ story during the day Sunday.  I left a few comments regarding deleting the comments and their coverage of the story in general.  Guess what - my comments were deleted….  Here’s what they posted as a reason this morning:

Posted by KNSemily on July 28, 2008 at 11:18 a.m.

Hi everyone,
My inbox is getting slammed with flagged comments and I’m going to start being pretty strict with this as we are on a national stage right now. So heads up: if KNS staff finds your comments to be off-topic, “unlawful, threatening, abusive, libelous, defamatory, invasive of privacy or publicity rights, vulgar, obscene, profane, pornographic, or otherwise objectionable”, as stated in our user agreement, they will be deleted. Please be nice. This is a terrible thing that happened in our backyards and we should be supporting each other, not insulting or discrediting each other’s religious beliefs, etc. I am going to interpret “off-topic” very broadly.

Comments which have since been deleted (I know because I continually monitored the site yesterday) included religious views, facts about the church policy regarding gays and lesbians, and many that criticized the News Sentinel for being the last website in town to provide updates.

Not one that I remember could be construed as meeting their criteria for deletion.   Unless they simply considered it “objectionable” because they didn’t like the content.  I’d be willing to bet that they found a lot of it “objectionable” because they “objected” to someone saying that their coverage sucked yesterday.

Sure, there were many ignorant comments posted by ignorant people - how will deleting them ever help these people become less ignorant?  How will the rest of the community ever understand the hate (from some) that lingers under the surface, just waiting to explode into violence?

Ummm - isn’t that what happened here yesterday?.

Speaking of objectionable, check out the headline on this story in the News Sentinel tonight.

Given the News Sentinels’ proclivity in deleting information, I’m copying it here.  Verbatim.

Bill O’Reilly, Michael Savage, Sean Hannity on accused shooter’s reading list

4-page letter outlines frustration, hatred of 'liberal movement'

Here’s an excerpt:

Inside the house, officers found “Liberalism is a Mental Health Disorder” by radio talk show host Michael Savage, “Let Freedom Ring” by talk show host Sean Hannity, and “The O’Reilly Factor,” by television talk show host Bill O’Reilly.

None of the national media I checked tonight (CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, FoxNews, etc) mention this - and they’re right not to bring it up.  Any well-read person is going to have a wide variety of books in their home.  I have two copies of the Bible, a Book of Mormon, and a Koran in my house.

I also have books by Robert Heinlein, Ayn Rand, a 13 volume “Story of Civilization” by Will Durant, Rachel Carson, Dave Barry, and lots of others.

Right-wingers think I’m a liberal because I support the ACLU, legalizing drugs and prostitution; those on the left think I’m a conservative because I support the NRA, Constitutional Law, and fiscal responsibility.  Guess what - I’m a Libertarian and neither of those labels apply to me.  Live and let live is what I’m all about.

There are probably 1500 books in my house right now - I guarantee that some of them are “objectionable” to someone.  Does that make me anything - other than well read?  Is that motivation for me to shoot up a church?  I don’t think so!

There’s lots more, but if you’re looking for coverage of the shooting at the Tennessee Valley Unitarian Universalist Church (TVUUC) in Knoxville, I suggest WBIR.com or pick one from this list at Google News.

I may add to this later if I read something else that ticks me off!  :-)  My posts are normally carried as part of the Knoxville Blog Network on the News Sentinel - let’s see if they have the guts to include this one….

gk

The new Trane XL15i was installed today.  The installers from Cook’s Comfort Systems were very nice, they worked quickly, and cleaned up everything before leaving.  I had quite a few conference calls this morning, so I wasn’t able to watch everything, but I don’t think they checked the ductwork for leaks.

There was a mixup in the paperwork and they’ll come back sometime next week to finalize everything, so they may check the ductwork at that time. Also, TVA will do a free inspection since I went with one of their approved contractors, so I’ll be calling them for an independent inspection to make sure everything was completed properly. I’ll post the results of their inspection.

First impressions:

1) The XL15i is much larger than the old GE unit.  It’s square, about 2.5 feet on each side, and about 5 feet tall.  It’s even taller because it sits on 4 small stands that are about 6 to 8 inches tall. It reminds me of an over sized, green, R2D2.

2) The unit is VERY quiet!  We have a screened in porch about 20 feet away from the unit, and you really have to listen to hear it running.  Ditto for the air handler in the garage.  I can hear 3 of my neighbors’ units running over the sound of mine when I’m sitting on the porch. (My PC fan is louder - but I sit 2 feet from it, not 20 feet.)

3) There is no noise at all in the house when it’s running - you have to feel for air coming out of the vents to know it’s on.  Very impressive.

The bottom line is that I like it so far.  Now I want to see what the electric bill looks like….  I’ll add an update here when we get an electric bill.

We used over 4000kwh last July, but that was a very hot month here.   They normally read our meter somewhere between the 21st and the 25th of each month, so the unit was installed right about the same time so I can directly compare bills from last year to this year, and the new unit will be on next months’ bill.

gk

From boston.com, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said this about Obama:  “I would say that he is well-equipped — physically, mentally and politically,” she said at a news conference today, adding that she wouldn’t be averse to a Bush-style backrub.

So it appears that Angela has the hots for Obama….  That’s a foreign policy….

gk

I was reading a story on Marketwatch.com tonight regarding the quarterly results from some of the big banks.  Several times in the story the author mentioned “kitchen sink”, which refers to the hope that the banks have finally written down all the losses, that they’ve included everything - including the kitchen sink.

I think they are wildly optimistic.  One reason I think so is a statement like this: Analysts say that after this report, Merrill has less than $20 billion in risky securities left on the balance sheet.

The problem is that they included the caveat “on the balance sheet”.  There are exceptions, but almost all of these banks’ really risky “investments” are in hedge funds and derivatives that are off the balance sheet.  Very few are actually on the books, so the losses (so far) have been hidden.  Eventually those losses will need to be accounted for.

Anyway, I posted this as a comment on the Marketwatch site in response to the story, and decided I might as well post it on my own blog as well.

Ok, I promised to follow up with my search for a replacement for my 32 year old GE AC and natural gas furnace, so here’s what I’ve done.

My search for impartial reliability ratings was fruitless - no one does reliability ratings on heat pumps that I can find.  In talking to the dealers that I selected (more on that in a minute) they all said that I could expect no more than 12 - possibly 15 - years of service from their favorite brand.

I asked what they had that could run for 20 years or more - regardless of how much it cost - with just normal routine maintenance.  No one had a heat pump or AC system that they thought would work that long.  I understand the reluctance to give even the implication of a 15 or 20 year warranty, but to find that there are absolutely no modern systems that can be expected to run for 20 years is a shocker - and I still don’t understand why.

The house I had in Missouri was built in 1966.  The original Carrier AC system was still working fine in 1991 when I bought it, and it ran  with no major repairs (I had to have freon added in the last 2 years) until I replaced it with another Carrier system (a 3.5 ton, 11 SEER system) in 1998.  It had worked reliably for 32 years.

The house I bought when I moved to Knoxville last year was built in 1976, and the original GE AC and natural gas furnace was still working.  I had to have it charged last year in August, and again in June this year.  I had it inspected before I bought the house, and none of the major components had been replaced - so I knew I’d need to spend money on it soon.  In other words, the original GE system installed in 1976 was still original and still working fine.  That’s 32 years of reliable heating and cooling. 

I haven’t looked at every house in this subdivision - the majority of which was built in 1975 and 1976 - but from my casual observations, at least 50% of them have the exact same GE AC unit.  And they are still running.  I can see 5 of them from my backyard.  That’s reliability.

If you bought a car in the 60’s or 70’s, it was fairly rare for it to go 100,000 miles without needing some fairly major repairs - something like a water pump, transmission, alternator/generator, or AC system would be almost guaranteed to fail before 100,000 miles or withing 5 to 7 years.  And carburetors needed cleaning and adjustment every 10K miles, plugs needed to be cleaned and gapped at replaced at 5K - and replaced at 10K.  Condensers needed replacement at least every 15 to 25 K, etc.  Lot’s of maintenance - much of it expensive - was required just to keep a car running.

On the other hand, for cars made since about the late 80’s, it’s routine for them to last for 100,000 miles with basically no maintenaince - other than changing the oil and replacing belts.  My 1995 Explorer (4WD, XLT, 4.0 V6) lasted 247,000 miles with zero major repairs.  A few belts and hoses, lot’s of oil changes, 2 spark plug changes, the alternator replaced at about 160,000 miles, but that was it.  I sold it to my sister 2 years ago, and she’s had to replace a wheel bearing.  Nothing else.  It now has over 260K miles.  Much more reliable than anything you could buy in the 60’s and 70’s.

I currently have a 2004 Explorer with about 60,000 miles (zero repairs so far) and a 1995 Cadillac STS with 201,000 miles.  The Caddy has needed a new AC compressor (at about 170K miles) and a controller computer for the transmission (at about 160K miles) but other than that, it’s been just routine oil changes, brakes, belts, hoses, etc.  Routine maintenance.  One change of spark plugs at 100K miles.  It’s running great, so I’ve put off the 200K plug change for now.  Don’t fix it if it ain’t broke! 

My question is why?  Why can I buy a car that routinely lasts twice as long as one made in 1970 - but a modern AC heat pump/furnace is only expected to last half as long as one made in 1970?

Computers, printers, cell phones, TV’s - even stuff like barbecue grills and lawn mowers - all routinely last much longer - and work much better - than they did 20 or 30 years ago.  Modern windows are much more efficient - but also stronger with smoother sliding actions and longer lasting than the crappy aluminum and vinyl windows of the 70’s and 80’s.  And windows are also very much installer dependent.   What’s different about modern AC/heat pump systems?

The best answer I’ve received so far is a couple of anecdotal stories where people assume that the modern coils and compressors are lighter and cheaper than those in the past in order to get the highest possible SEER rating.  

The installers I talked to didn’t think that was the reason, but they couldn’t come up with any other reason.  Well, one of them did say that modern electronics were more prone to failure and that they were extremely expensive to replace.  “You know, they’re run by computers now so they are more efficient, but they get hot, break down, and they’re really expensive.”

Since I work in the computer field, I know that damn near everything electronic has gotten much better/faster/cheaper over the past 20 years, so I eliminated his company from consideration.  I looked at the circuit boards he carries on his truck for replacement on service calls, and they weren’t any more complicated than the open circuit electronic fuel injection board on my 1993 John Deere 445 mower.  It’s cheap stuff that survives for years in just as harsh of an environment.  It should be less than $50 for the part, but it would probably cost a couple hundred bucks to replace.

Back to the heat pump saga.  I called my local utility company, Lenoir City Utility Board (LCUB) and asked then about certified contractors to install heat pump systems.  They sent me a list of about 35 companies certified to install systems according to their “energy right” guidelines.  

LCUB is a participant in TVA’s energy right program, and they have a 6% fixed interest financing program (for up to 10 years) going on right now for 14 SEER systems and above.  They’ll just add the payment to your electric bill.  No penalty to pay it off early.  It’s a pretty sweet deal, but even if you don’t finance the system through them, if you use an approved contractor LCUB will come out and inspect the system after it’s installed to ensure everything was done correctly…  At least according to their standards.

I spent a couple of evenings going through the list of approved contractors, looking up their companies online, running reports on the BBB site, etc.  After a few phone calls to eliminate the obivious idiots - such as the “it’s run by a computer” guy, and one who said “I can put in a very cheap builder brand (Goodman) and save you lots of money, but I can’t do more than a 3 year warranty” - I had 3 companies come out to my house to provide quotes.

All had been in business at least 15 years, and all had zero complaints (according to the BBB) in the last 3 years.  I eliminated some companies that had long track records and satisfactory BBB ratings simply because they had a large number of complaints filed. 

If they really were looking out for their customers, they would have resolved the problems before it escalated to filing a complaint with the BBB. (My web hosting side business has been around 12 years with zero complaints - I expect the same treatment from those I deal with.)  And a 10 year parts and labor warranty isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on if the company isn’t there in 3 years.  Just like when I buy stocks, I want - no I require - long track records of superior performance.

I told all 3 that I was looking for reliability as my highest priority.  I needed at least a 10 year warranty that covered everything, parts and labor, that I expected the system to work without me having to pay anything if something broke - and that if they provided what I wanted they’d never need to provide any warranty work.  In other words, I made it clear that I wanted the most reliable system they could install.

Number 2 was efficiency.  Last year we had a couple of months with $400 electricity bills during the summer, and several months with $300 gas bills for heating in the winter.  And last year wasn’t that hot - and it damn sure wasn’t a cold winter!  I wanted to cut those bills in half.  I wanted the ducts checked and replaced/repaired as needed, everything checked out to ensure proper air flow and comfort in each room, etc.

Number 3 was cost.  I wanted competitive pricing, but cost wouldn’t determine which system I bought.  I also wanted an all electric system, as natural gas prices fluctuate too much for me, and it doesn’t really get that cold in Knoxville anyway.  Last year we had a few nights that dropped to about 10 degrees, but mostly the lows were in the 20’s and 30’s during the winter.  From my research, I knew that most modern air to air heat pumps would provide all the heat we needed until about freezing, so it’ll make sense to simply disconnect our natural gas.

Anyway, first up was Cook’s Comfort Systems out of Oak Ridge.  Jawrell Cook (the owner) came out.  He measured the house, measured the windows and doors, made a diagram of the house and the size of each room, and (since the windows were obviously new) asked if I knew the rating on them.  I had saved the EPA stickers from when I had them replaced last year, so he could estimate the heat loss. 

Jawrell was very thorough, he asked a lot of questions about what I wanted, he checked out the insulation, etc.  He had a sense of humor, and he was very professional.   He quoted a 3 ton Trane XL15i system. 

I’m debating with myself whether or not to put the actual quotes on here….  Since I haven’t asked permission from any of the companies, I’ll keep the exact numbers private.  It’ll suffice to say that all 3 contractors quoted prices between $7000 and $9200.  Pricing wasn’t a major factor, because all were close - although they recommended/quoted different systems as you’ll see in a moment.

Next up was Pioneer Heating and Air Conditioning located here in Knoxville.  Chris Noe came out and did a very thorough inspection of the house - he was the only one who looked in the upstairs attic to check out the ductwork and insulation - and he quoted an Amana 4 ton system.  He provide 2 options, a 16 SEER system and a 14 SEER system, with the 16SEER costing about $1300 more.

He also provided a variable speed blower option on the 14 SEER system and said that would bring it close to 15 SEER.  The variable speed blower option was an extra $350.  (The Trane system above includes a variable speed blower, as did the 16 SEER Amana system he quoted.) 

Next up was Town and Country Heating and Air Conditioning from Maryville.  (I’m in West Knoxville, so all of these towns are within a 20 minute drive.)  Rick Fields came out and looked at the house.  He wasn’t quite as thorough as the others, but he asked a lot of questions to ensure he understood what I was looking for.  He seemed very concerned about the cost of running about 50′ of wire from the breaker box to the air handler in the garage (it’s all open crawl space between) in order to get the power for the electric heat to replace the gas furnace.  The other guys also measured the distance, but Rick seemed very concerned about it for some reason.

Anyway, he also quoted 2 systems.  An American Standard 3 ton 15 SEER and 16 SEER.  The American Standard 16 SEER was by far the most expensive system we were quoted, while the 15 SEER was about $1000 higher than the Trane 15 SEER system.  

While price isn’t my deciding factor, it is a factor, and I didn’t see anything about the American Standard system that made it $1000 better than the others.  Rick did say that they would replace the copper lines to the outdoor unit with new lines, while the others said they would flush and evacuate the existing lines, so that may be part of the price difference.  But it’s only about 30′ of open attic above the garage that the lines run through, so the cost shouldn’t be that much.  And the American Standard warranty has MUCH more fine print about exclusions than the others.

I also had “guestimates” from both Town and Country and Pioneer on installing a ground source heat pump.  Since my property is only about 1/3 of an acre, it would need to be a vertical loop system.  Both companies said that it wouldn’t make sense to do.   Town and Country sells a Florida Heat Pump (FHP) system, while Pioneer sells a Water Furnace ground source system.  

Both companies said that it would cost “between $10 and $16 per foot” to drill the well, depending on the soil conditions they encountered.  The strange part is that that Pioneer said they needed to drill 150 foot per ton of system, while Town and Country said 250 foot per ton.  Based on what I’ve read about ground source heat pumps, the 250 foot per ton is more accurate.  Anyway, a ground source system would cost at least 2 and 1/2 to 3 times as much as a standard air to air heat pump to install.  Since it would save me about $500/year more than an air to air system, the payoff just isn’t there.  I can’t justify it financially, so it ain’t happening.

I’ll wrap this up.  I liked all three companies.  They all did a thorough job of checking out what I needed and they all made sure they understood what I wanted.  I don’t think you would have any problems with any of them regarding warranty work or the quality of their installations. 

In the end I decided to go with Cook’s Comfort Systems.  The Trane system seems like the best for the money, and Jawrell seemed very customer focused.   He had the attitude that he would do whatever it took to ensure we were satisfied long after the installation was over.  That’s what I strive for in my job, and that’s something I look for in companies that I deal with when I need something done.

If anyone would like more details about any of the bids, the warranties, or the companies I checked out, just let me know.  I’ll pass along whatever I can via email to help you - I know that there isn’t much info out there about heat pumps, but hopefully I’ve provided a little bit of assistance so you won’t have to dig as much as I did.

gk

Why is it so hard to find information about the reliability of heat pumps?  I want to replace a 30 year old GE system, but it seems that no one has reliability ratings on heat pumps/central AC systems….

I can find ratings on cars, cell phones, vacuum cleaners, carpeting, computers, irrigation systems, etc.   Nothing on heat pumps.  Zip.

Consumer Reports (a site I use often) pops up on almost every search I do on the subject, but they don’t have ratings on heat pumps.  They rate window AC units and gas furnaces, but not heat pumps.  It’s absurd that no one (that I can find) seems to have reviews/reliability ratings on various manufacturer’s heat pump products.  If you can rate furnaces, why not heat pumps?

I read that newer high efficiency units have thinner tubing in the coils - which supposedly cracks easier and faster - but nowhere that gives any data to show the difference.  Just stories….

I can read hundreds of sites that talk about what a heat pump is; I can read hundreds of sites that talk about the differences between air source and ground source heat pumps; I can read hundreds of sites that opine on which type of system is better for a particular climate - but NOTHING on which brand/model is the most reliable; which brand/model historically needs the most (or fewest) repairs; which brand/model has the most features, etc.

It’s like there’s a black hole for heat pump rating/reliability information.  I live in Knoxville, TN, and there are dozens of companies selling, installing, and repairing heat pumps here, but evidently I’d need to start a site to create some independent reliability ratings for their products - because so far no one else seems to be doing it….  This area seems to be begging for the equivalent of an Edmunds.com or KBB.com. 

I’m looking for a high efficiency, reliable, air to air (or ground source, depends on if I can afford the ground source right now or not) heat pump.  It should be simple, but then I read stories where someone thinks their xxx brand system is super reliable because it’s only needed 2 motors, 3 switches, and 1 compressor replaced in 10 years (”But it was covered under warranty!”) and I want to scream at the monitor….

Reliable means not having to replace major components for at least 10 years.  Reliable means that the system (with normal maintenance) will still be running 30 years from now - just like the original GE gas furnace and AC is still running in my house - and it’s 32 years old. 

I can’t believe that the HVAC campanies haven’t made progress in reliability over 30 years - but there are ZERO sites that I can find to indicate otherwise.

I asked about reliability ratings on a HVAC forum, and I can’t believe the way some of these people treat their potential customers.   Most everyone who replied to my questions said something similar to “it’s the installer that makes the difference” as if every single manufacturer sold identical units, assembled from the same parts, on the same assembly line. 

I know that some manufacturers have different lines that are pretty much the same with only the names changed to protect the innocent, and that many use off the shelf components which are the same as another manufacturer - but assuming the installer does his job right, I want to know which manufacturer has the most reliable product - regardless of cost.  It appears that that information is a highly guarded government secret, because there ain’t no one talking.  It’s the Area 51 of consumer information.

I tried asking the question about 5 different ways, but evidently HVAC people don’t like answering a direct question, because (contrary to what some on the thread claimed) I never received an answer, and I obviously pissed them off by asking again in different ways. 

Here’s one response I received: “hey why don’t you look4nac up your a$$, whatta douche bag. if the coil cracks in a year it sould be covered under warranty, same for the compressor.”

That type of attitude (along with a couple of “don’t let the door hit you on the way out”) responses shows me that the “pro’s” in the HVAC field need to work on their customer relationship skills.  Either that or they need to stop drinking a minimum of 2 hours before posting.  I had to stop posting to the thread before I blew a gasket last night.

 I just checked the forum thread again tonight and it doesn’t get any better.  The last post as of 9:16pm ET has another potential customer asking the same question in yet another way.  He says:

Ok, he’s eliminated the installer as a variable - this answer should be easy.  Something like “I work on/install several brands, and in my experience xxx needs fewer repairs overall than xxx brand” or xxx brand is good overall, but I’ve replaced dozens of compressors on xxx model” or whatever.  

But here’s the response he got:   If you have a great installer. Then the brand he installs/prefers is the best brand for you to get from him. 

Thanks for nothing.  That’s the exact same thing as saying “if you happen to be at a Chevy dealer, buy a Chevy.  If you’re at a Mercedes dealer, buy a Mercedes.  If you’re at a Honda dealer, buy a Honda.  Are you a dumbass?”  As the Guinness commercials say “Brilliant!”

These HVAC “pros” seem to think that because it’s covered under warranty, it doesn’t matter if it breaks.   That’s not what I mean when I say “reliability”.  Reliable means that it doesn’t break in the first place. 

Reliable means the compressor is a proven unit that’s been on the market for a few years and has a repair history, the coils have been stress tested and they don’t crack, the blower and fan motors have worked for years - without needing to be replaced - even if it’s under warranty.  If most of them are made by the same people, there should be a wealth of info available.  But there isn’t.

I did find a site named RemodelHomeGuide.com that had the most popular brands - but that tells me squat about reliability. 

Just had to vent - but if you know of a site with heat pump reliability ratings, PLEASE pass it on.   I promise to share any good info I receive.  One post at the HVAC link above did point me to a generic JD Power HVAC subcontractor rating from 2 years ago - but according to the press release, the actual product only accounted for 14% of the rating.  Sales and marketing support to the subcontractors counted for 18% of the rating - and they don’t even list reliability as a factor on the report….  Pretty much worthless.

I’ll post a follow up after I have a few local companies check out my house and provide price quotes. 

I had a Trane dealer here today.  Seemed honest, he didn’t recommend the higher SEER systems (recommended an XL15i dual fuel system) for my house, and he seemed upfront about the higher cost and (what he said was) lower reliability of the XL16i and XL19i systems.  Something that any installer/repair person could’ve - but didn’t - say on the HVAC forum I mentioned.

I’ll keep you posted as to what the others say - and I promise to follow up with the results.  Maybe I’ll go ahead and start a HVAC rating site since no one else seems to do it.

gk

I had posted an article late Friday night/Saturday regarding the “expert” opinions staying to stay fully invested in the stock market.  I’m not sure what happened to it, but it gives a not found error now.

Suffice it to say that all the major sites (CNN, FoxNews, NY Times, Marketwatch, etc) said pretty much the same thing.  “Don’t sell - now is a great time to buy!” (or words to that effect.)

They may be right, but they’ve been saying the same things since the market started falling last year.  If you listened to them and followed their advice, you’re down about 20% as of today. 

Speaking of today, CNN has another article advising everyone to stay in the market posted today.  Here’s a quote: “We took the opportunity to buy a few things in the financial sector last week,” said Ted Parrish, co-manager of the Henssler Equity fund. “Even with all the negativity, there are some values. The writedowns may continue but we think the worst of them may be over.”

How’s that working for you Ted?   And I’ve been reading the “the worst of the writedowns may be over” since last fall.  They haven’t stopped yet.  The time to buy (unless you’re made of money and don’t mind more losses) is when the writedowns stop.  Let’s see a quarter from Lehman or Bank of America with no more writedowns, let’s see a quarter from Goldman Sachs with no writedowns - I’ll buy back in then. 

Right now you’re urging investors to “catch a falling knife” and that’s never a good idea.

gk

How about some breaking news?  According to numerous news sources today, the Justices on the US Supreme Court can read!  Well, at least they can read some of the Second Amendment.

I gave my reasons why the Washington DC gun ban should be ruled unconstitutional back in March, and today 5 of the 9 justices agreed- at least partially - with me. 

CNN says The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Thursday that a sweeping ban on handguns in the nation’s capital violated the Second Amendment right to bear arms.  and Washington Mayor Adrian Fenty said he was disappointed in the ruling but will give the district’s police department 21 days to implement a process for registering handguns.

But if I was the plaintiff, I’d sue again, because It still will be illegal to carry handguns outside the home, and all pistols must be registered with police.

Sorry DC, but I don’t see how that’s constitutional either.  Read my previous post (linked above) and you’ll see why I think most of the current gun laws are invalid - or at least why they should be invalid.

But it is refreshing to find that there’s at least a few people in DC that can read - and better yet have taken the time to read - the US Constitution.  I may have more to say once I read the opinion and get past the various news organization takes on the story. 

Lock and load DC - you’re partially free again!

gk

George Carlin died yesterday.  I for one will miss him.  From providing cutting social commentary, to setting legal precedents, to forcing people to question things they were taught as children - George enlightened millions.

I find it curious that the news stories about George Carlin (that I read) all - without exception - talked about the Supreme Court decision regarding his “Seven Words You Can Never Say on Television” skit.  Some of the stories mentioned that the decision (FCC v. PACIFICA FOUNDATION, 438 U.S. 726 (1978)) established the rules for broadacst “decency” that we still use today.

But not a single one actually mentioned ANY of the “Seven Words”.  I thought we’d come further than that.  And by not mentioning the words, they missed the point of the skit entirely. 

Words are merely names we give to thoughts and things and actions.  In and of themselves, words mean nothing.  A word is simply a sound - why are some sounds ok and others “filthy” or “dirty” or “obscene”? 

In keeping with the spirit of Carlin’s intent, here is the original, unedited transcript - straight from the Supreme Court decision at FindLaw.  Ever wonder why it’s ok to print (or say) these words on the Internet?  It’s (in part) thanks to George Carlin. 

Here we go - enjoy! 

gk

(All that which follows is pure George - straight from the Supreme Court transcript.)

Aruba-du, ruba-tu, ruba-tu. I was thinking about the curse words and the swear words, the cuss words and the words that you can’t say, that you’re not supposed to say all the time, [']cause words or people into words want to hear your words.

Some guys like to record your words and sell them back to you if they can, (laughter) listen in on the telephone, write down what words you say. A guy who used to be in Washington knew that his phone was tapped, used to answer, Fuck Hoover, yes, go ahead. (laughter)

Okay, I was thinking one night about the words you couldn’t say on the public, ah, airwaves, um, the ones you definitely wouldn’t say, ever, [']cause I heard a lady say bitch one night on television, and it was cool like she was talking about, you know, ah, well, the bitch is the first one to notice that in the litter Johnie right (murmur) Right. And, uh, bastard you can say, and hell and damn so I have to figure out which ones you couldn’t and ever and it came down to seven but the list is open to amendment, and in fact, has been changed, uh, by now, ha, a lot of people pointed things out to me, and I noticed some myself.

The original seven words were, shit, piss, fuck, cunt, cocksucker, mother-fucker, and tits. Those are the ones that will curve your spine, grow hair on your hands and (laughter) maybe, even bring us, God help us, peace without honor (laughter) um, and a bourbon. (laughter) And now the first thing that we noticed was that word fuck was really repeated in there because the word motherfucker is a compound word and it’s another form of the word fuck. (laughter) You want to be a purist it doesn’t really - it can’t be on the list of basic words.

Also, cocksucker is a compound word and neither half of that is really dirty. The word - the half sucker that’s merely suggestive (laughter) and the word cock is a half-way dirty word, 50% dirty - dirty half the time, depending on what you mean by it. (laughter)

Uh, remember when you first heard it, like in 6th grade, you used to giggle. And the cock crowed three times, heh (laughter) the cock - three times. It’s in the Bible, cock in the Bible. (laughter) And the first time you heard about a cock-fight, remember - What? Huh? naw. It ain’t that, are you stupid? man. (laughter, clapping) It’s chickens, you know, (laughter)

Then you have the four letter words from the old Anglo-Saxon fame. Uh, shit and fuck. The word shit, uh, is an interesting kind of word in that the middle class has never really accepted it and approved it. They use it like, crazy but it’s not really okay. It’s still a rude, dirty, old kind of gushy word. (laughter) They don’t like that, but they say it, like, they say it like, a lady now in a middle-class home, you’ll hear most of the time she says it as an expletive, you know, it’s out of her mouth before she knows. She says, Oh shit oh shit, (laughter) oh shit. If she drops something, Oh, the shit hurt the broccoli. Shit. Thank you. (footsteps fading away) (papers ruffling)

Read it! (from audience)

Shit! (laughter) I won the Grammy, man, for the comedy album. Isn’t that groovy? (clapping, whistling) (murmur) That’s true. Thank you. Thank you man. Yeah. (murmur) (continuous clapping) Thank you man. Thank you. Thank you very much, man. Thank, no, (end of continuous clapping) for that and for the Grammy, man, [']cause (laughter) that’s based on people liking it man, yeh, that’s ah, that’s okay man. (laughter) Let’s let that go, man. I got my Grammy. I can let my hair hang down now, shit. (laughter) Ha! So!

Now the word shit is okay for the man. At work you can say it like crazy. Mostly figuratively, Get that shit out of here,  will ya? I don’t want to see that shit anymore. I can’t cut that shit, buddy. I’ve had that shit up to here. I think you’re full of shit myself. (laughter) He don’t know shit from Shinola. (laughter) you know that? (laughter) Always wondered how the Shinola people felt about that (laughter) Hi, I’m the new man from Shinola. (laughter) Hi, how are ya? Nice to see ya. (laughter) How are ya? (laughter) Boy, I don’t know whether to shit or wind my watch. (laughter) Guess, I’ll shit on my watch. (laughter) Oh, the shit is going to hit de fan. (laughter) Built like a brick shit-house. (laughter) Up, he’s up shit’s creek. (laughter) He’s had it. (laughter) He hit me, I’m sorry. (laughter) Hot shit, holy shit, tough shit, eat shit, (laughter) shit-eating grin. Uh, whoever thought of that was ill. (murmur laughter) He had a shit-eating grin! He had a what? (laughter) Shit on a stick. (laughter) Shit in a handbag. I always like that. He ain’t worth shit in a handbag. (laughter) Shitty. He acted real shitty. (laughter) You know what I mean? (laughter) I got the money back, but a real shitty attitude. Heh, he had a shit-fit. (laughter) Wow! Shit-fit. Whew! Glad I wasn’t there. (murmur, laughter) All the animals - Bull shit, horse shit, cow shit, rat shit, bat shit. (laughter) First time I heard bat shit, I really came apart. A guy in Oklahoma, Boggs, said it, man. Aw! Bat shit. (laughter) Vera reminded me of that last night, ah (murmur). Snake shit, slicker than owl shit. (laughter) Get your shit together. Shit or get off the pot. (laughter) I got a shit-load full of them. (laughter) I got a shit-pot full, all right. Shit-head, shit-heel, shit in your heart, shit for brains, (laughter) shit-face, heh (laughter) I always try to think how that could have originated; the first guy that said that. Somebody got drunk and fell in some shit, you know. (laughter) Hey, I’m shit-face. (laughter) Shit-face, today. (laughter) Anyway, enough of that shit. (laughter)

The big one, the word fuck that’s the one that hangs them up the most. [']Cause in a lot of cases that’s the very act that hangs them up the most. So, it’s natural that the word would, uh, have the same effect. It’s a great word, fuck, nice word, easy word, cute word, kind of. Easy word to say. One syllable, short u. (laughter) Fuck. (Murmur) You know, it’s easy. Starts with a nice soft sound fuh ends with a kuh. Right? (laughter) A little something for everyone. Fuck (laughter) Good word. Kind of a proud word, too. Who are you? I am FUCK. (laughter) FUCK OF THE MOUNTAIN. (laughter) Tune in again next week to FUCK OF THE MOUNTAIN. (laughter) It’s an interesting word too, [']cause it’s got a double kind of a life - personality - dual, you know, whatever the right phrase is. It leads a double life, the word fuck. First of all, it means, sometimes, most of the time, fuck. What does it mean? It means to make love. Right? We’re going to make love, yeh, we’re going to fuck, yeh, we’re going to fuck, yeh, we’re going to make love. (laughter) we’re really going to fuck, yeh, we’re going to make love. Right? And it also means the beginning of life, it’s the act that begins life, so there’s the word hanging around with words like love, and life, and yet on the other hand, it’s also a word that we really use to hurt each other with, man. It’s a heavy. It’s one that you have toward the end of the argument. (laughter) Right? (laughter) You finally can’t make out. Oh, fuck you man. I said, fuck you. (laughter, murmur) Stupid fuck. (laughter) Fuck you and everybody that looks like you. (laughter) man. It would be nice to change the movies that we already have and substitute the word fuck for the word kill, wherever we could, and some of those movie cliches would change a little bit. Madfuckers still on the loose. Stop me before I fuck again. Fuck the ump, fuck the ump, fuck the ump, fuck the ump, fuck the ump. Easy on the clutch Bill, you’ll fuck that engine again. (laughter)

The other shit one was, I don’t give a shit. Like it’s worth something, you know? (laughter) I don’t give a shit. Hey, well, I don’t take no shit, (laughter) you know what I mean? You know why I don’t take no shit? (laughter) [']Cause I don’t give a shit. (laughter) If I give a shit, I would have to pack shit. (laughter) But I don’t pack no shit cause I don’t give a shit. (laughter) You wouldn’t shit me, would you? (laughter) That’s a joke when you’re a kid with a worm looking out the bird’s ass. You wouldn’t shit me, would you? (laughter) It’s an eight-year-old joke but a good one. (laughter) T

he additions to the list. I found three more words that had to be put on the list of words you could never say on television, and they were fart, turd and twat, those three. (laughter)

Fart, we talked about, it’s harmless It’s like tits, it’s a cutie word, no problem. Turd, you can’t say but who wants to, you know? (laughter) The subject never comes up on the panel so I’m not worried about that one. Now the word twat is an interesting word. Twat! Yeh, right in the twat. (laughter) Twat is an interesting word because it’s the only one I know of, the only slang word applying to the, a part of the sexual anatomy that doesn’t have another meaning to it. Like, ah, snatch, box and pussy all have other meanings, man. Even in a Walt Disney movie, you can say, We’re going to snatch that pussy and put him in a box and bring him on the airplane. (murmur, laughter) Everybody loves it. The twat stands alone, man, as it should. And two-way words. Ah, ass is okay providing you’re riding into town on a religious feast day. (laughter) You can’t say, up your ass. (laughter) You can say, stuff it! (murmur) There are certain things you can say its weird but you can just come so close. Before I cut, I, uh, want to, ah, thank you for listening to my words, man, fellow, uh space travelers. Thank you man for tonight and thank you also. (clapping whistling)

I can’t believe that just a few months after letting one kid die, these religious nutcases have let another child die.  I’m not kidding - it’s the same group! 

After I disagreed with what the state did in Texas (the state couldn’t prove a damn thing and had no reason for taking the kids away from their parents) I’m on the other side in this one.  I can’t believe that after parents have been charged with manslaughter for letting a 15 month old kid die,  the state allowed the same church to withhold treatment from other kids - and now a 16 year old is dead.

It’s time to put these idiots into a chair and watch the smoke disappear into the sunset as they fry….  How many of their kids will we allow them to kill before the kids are removed from this insane environment?

gk

As I was driving around the streets of west Knoxville this afternoon, the stupidity of the traffic light system here made my blood boil.  Why can’t Knoxville set the timing on the lights so you don’t stop at every single light?

It ain’t rocket science!  Take Cedar Bluff road - please!  I defy anyone, at any time during the day, to drive through more than 2 lights (in either direction) without having to stop.  It’s nuts!  Set the fricking lights so that you get traffic progression in at least one direction.

Just think of how much fuel would be saved if you didn’t have to stop at every single light for one or two minutes.

Ever drive through a town where you saw a sign at a light saying “traffic lights set for 35mph” or something similar?  If you drive at the speed posted, you should only have to stop at ONE light while driving that road.  That’s called progression, and it’s really simple to do - why can’t Knoxville understand it?

One of these days I’m also going to have to rant about the cashiers working at stores and gas stations in Knoxville.  At least 40% of the time, they can’t count the change correctly - even though the register is telling them how much change is needed!  God forbid they should ever have to do the math to figure out the change….

Enough for now.  I feel better.

gk

Looks like Shania Twain is available now - I’ll give her a place to lie down if she needs one….  She’s 42, her soon-to-be-ex is 59.  I’m only 46, so she’d be getting a younger guy….  It’s a win-win! 

gk

Here’s a Reuters story I found interesting.  The story starts out with:

A major Australian state has banned laser pointers after a spate of incidents in which aircraft pilots have been temporarily blinded, the government said on Monday.

High-powered hand lasers, including so-called “star pointers” used by astronomers, would be listed as prohibited weapons in New South Wales state with jail terms of up to 14 years for anyone carrying them without a permit.

Here’s a thought - why not put the punks who pull these stunts in jail instead of punishing everyone else?

For those of you who don’t know about these lasers, they are called “star pointers” for a reason, namely, amateur astronomers use them to point out where something is located in the sky to their fellow amateurs.  I have one myself.

Unlike red lasers, the green “star pointer” lasers are bright enough to see the path of the laser, so it’s really easy to take the laser and trace the outline of say, the little dipper (technically Ursa Minor) to someone who’s never seen it before.

The problem is when idiots use it for mischief.  My solution is to punish the idiots, not everyone.  In leadership development courses, what Australia did is called “leadership by regulation” as opposed to “leadership by inspiration.”

Idiots.

gk

I was responding to some comments to a post I made to www.seekingalpha.com a few minutes ago, when I said something that I think needs to be explained further.  I mentioned “leverage” and since that’s been in the news (especially regarding financial stocks) quite a lot over the past few months, I decided to expound on it a bit.

In the comment I referenced above, I said “Let’s say you have $1 million equity in your house, and you take it out in a HELOC. You take that $1 million and put 10% down on 10 other $1 million properties - and you depend on the renters to make your payments.“

That’s leverage.  I just took $1 million in assets (my home equity) and used it to gain control on $10 million in assets.  I used the words “gain control” rather than saying “to buy” because I don’t actually own them - the bank I borrowed the other $9 million from actually owns those properties.

It’s an important distinction, because what happens to my $10 million in assets if just one renter falls behind on their payments?  Suddenly I can’t make my mortgage payments.  It’s only 10% less income, but it causes me to suddenly have to sell the whole $10 million in leveraged assets - because I can’t make the payments.

That’s what happened to Bear Stearns.  They had some assets which they leveraged (borrowed against) in order to buy (with other peoples money) other assets.  When one small part of the initial asset didn’t make their payment, the whole house of cards fell.

In my example, I used a leverage ratio of 10 to 1.  Bear Stearns was leveraged over 30 to 1.  I’ve sen some arguments from pundits (including Ben Stein) where they say the markets have over reacted; that a 10 percent jump in the rate of defaults doesn’t warrant a 20 or 30 percent drop in the stock price of financial companies. 

They’re wrong.  And they’re wrong for the reason above.  When you’re that highly leveraged; when you have 20 (or more) dollars of debt for every dollar of assets; you are hosed when just one percent of the underlying assets doesn’t pay up.

Suddenly you can’t make your payments on all the debt you’ve borrowed.  And since you really didn’t make much of a down payment anyway, you have no equity in the investment.  If you had some equity, you’d have a little breathing room.

But you don’t.  You need every dollar that you’ve counted on to make those payments - because you’ve leveraged your equity. 

And what happens when the value of thoseleveraged assets turns out to be too high?  You’re fucked.  Not only are you highly leveraged, but the base value of thoseassets has dropped, so now you are more leveraged than you were just a monthago.  And so you’re even more vulnerable when there’s a small rise in loan defaults and bankruptcies.

It’s a wild, wild world right now.  I can’t think of a single bank or REIT that I’d touch with a 10 foot pole.  Go ahead and Google the news results for the 3rd quarter of last year.  Check out all the stories that claimed that the 4th quarter was the “kitchen sink” quarter.  Be sure to read how damn near everyone thought that the banks and investment houses have finally fessed up and come clean.

Now watch the headlines during the week ahead.  Let’s se how many additional write-downs there are.  A lot of people have written me saying that I’m overestimating the impact of the sub prime stuff.  Many have told me that all of those losses for the upcoming rate adjustments (for the Option ARM’s and ARM’s written in 2005 through 2007) have been accounted for, and that there’s no where to go but up.

They may be right, but I don’t think so.  I don’t think people truly understand the impact of leverage.  I don’t think they truly understand that just a 3 or 4 percent drop in the base asset (mortgages) can cause a company to disappear.  

I’m not putting my money back into the market until I’m sure that risk has been priced in.  Given the (in my view) extremely optimistic earnings forecasts for 2008 and 2009, that risk is being ignored right now.  I may be wrong (I often am!) but I think I’ll be getting 2 or 3 percent in my money market funds while the optimists are losing 10 to 20 percent (or more) trying to bottom fish the market.

Any questions?

gk

Just read this in the NY Times.  Pretty good - at least I got a chuckle out of it.  I especially like the sarcasm in the Q&A part, such as:

So what can the average golfer do differently?

“Take your driver to the driveway outside your house, lay it down and run over it with your car a few times,” Hardy said. “That club is killing you. Use your 3-wood off the tee, and you’ll feel better.”

Good stuff - I’d give it a shot, except I’m lucky to hit the ball 200 yards with my driver.  My 3 wood might go 200 - if it’s downhill, downwind, and happens to get a lucky bounce off of a cart path!

Watching the final round of the Masters today, I actually felt good when someone plunked it into the creek, or had to hit their second shot out of the pine straw in the trees.  Welcome to my world!

Since I’ve only played 5 rounds of golf in my life, and my best score is a 118, I’m definitely qualified to give out golf tips.  So I think I’ll start doing that - at least one tip per week, free of charge. 

This weeks’ tip is to ignore any tips you read in the NY Times.  NYC doesn’t have enough room for a decent golf course, so why listen to them? 

Bonus tip: If you don’t drink at least a 6 pack in 18 holes, then you’re either way too good to be reading this (because if you make too many good shots you don’t have time to drink beer while looking for your ball), or you’re really bad and you’re trying too hard.  Lighten up, loosen up, have a brew, and have some fun!

gk

Damn, there go my aspirations of being a well published scientist.  According to a story in the NY Times today anyway. 

Of course, that’s assuming that I had earned any credentials as a scientist, and that I had any aspirations to publish whatever scientific work I was doing at the time.   Since I am (at best) a layman who is familiar with mainstream scientific thought (and the scientific process) I don’t think this applies to me.

According to the study, published in February in Oikos, a highly respected scientific journal, the more beer a scientist drinks, the less likely the scientist is to publish a paper or to have a paper cited by another researcher, a measure of a paper’s quality and importance.

It’s important to note that the study doesn’t blame beer drinking for not being published in scientific journals.  In fact it says:

More important, as Dr. Grim pointed out, the study documents a correlation between beer drinking and scientific performance without explaining why they are correlated. That leaves open the possibility that it is not beer drinking that causes poor scientific performance, but just the opposite.

Or, as Dr. Mike Webster, an ornithologist and a beer enthusiast at Washington State University in Pullman, said, maybe “those with poor publication records are drowning their sorrows.”

In spite of his study, Dr. Grim, who said he would on occasion enjoy more than 12 beers in a night, is not on a campaign to decrease beer drinking among scientists. Why not? His answer: “I like it.”

I’m with you Dr. Grim, so I think I’ll have another beer and look for another story that irks me tonight.  If I don’t write about it, you can blame the beer.

gk