Effor.com

Ok, I managed to squeak by with a win last week - as I predicted based on the matchups, it was my lowest scoring week of the year - just 99 points.  But I made it to my Fantasy Football League’s playoffs undefeated at 12-0.

Another tough test this week though, because both Reggie Bush and Stephen Jackson are now expected to play - which isn’t as good of news as it should be.  I HATE starting a player who’s been out for a few weeks on their first week back.  Plus, both Bush and Jackson are up against tough rushing defenses this week.

Note - All the point projections below are based on PPR scoring.

Except for Bush and Jackson, most of the rest of my team have decent match ups in Week 13.  That’s good, because I think it’s gonna take 130+ points to beat my opponent this week.

Chris Johnson is going against the hapless rushing defense of the Lions.  I’m expecting over 100 yards rushing, at least 3 catches for 20 to 30 yards, and a touchdown (or two!) from him this week.  With any luck White won’t steal the touchdowns as he shot off his mouth this week and Jeff Fisher isn’t known for putting up with that type of behavior.  About 20 to 25 points total.

What can I say about Anquan Boldin that hasn’t been said?  He’s The Man this year and I don’t expect that to change this week.  6 catches for 80 plus yards and at least 1 score.  He’s scored 20 or more points every week since his injury (5 consecutive weeks!) and I don’t see any reason for him to stop that streak this week.  20 plus points for Boldin this week.

The same goes for Warner.  He should get close to 300 yards again, and 2 or 3 TD’s.  20 to 25 points.  I’ve gotten very addicted to Warner and Boldin combining for about 45 points every week!

NFL.com is projecting Roddy White to get 26 points in my league.  Even though he’s playing a very bad San Diego passing D, I think that’s too much.  I’m hoping for 20 points from him.

As always, the biggest gamble on my team is Calvin Johnson.  He’s a stud - but he has no one around to help him.  He’s caught TD passes from Kitna, Orlovsky, and Culpepper this year.  He’s number 6 in scoring among WR’s in my league.  But I still don’t trust him because the opposition should triple-cover him on every play.  Detroit has no one else to throw it to - they’ve got to keep going to Megatron.

Somehow he just keeps catching passes and scoring touchdowns.  He’s been amazingly consistent, scoring 15 or more points in all but 3 games this year, but I can’t shake the nagging feeling that he’s going to get shut out one of these weeks.  And he’s going against the Titans this week, so nothing will be easy.

If I was coaching Detroit, at least once - and maybe twice - in every offensive series I’d call a play like this:  Calvin go deep.  Culpepper throw it high and as far as you can in Calvin’s direction, he’ll be there. Maybe he catches 20% of them, 60% of them drop incomplete, and you get picked 20% of the time - who cares?  You’re 0-11 for God’s sake!  Give it a shot and you could score 30 points a game!  Count the interceptions as 50 yard punts.  What have you got to lose?

I know Detroit isn’t on national TV very often, but everyone should watch Calvin Johnson play Thursday.  He’s a freak.  He’s bigger and faster than TO, and he can jump like Randy Moss - and he’s got great hands to boot!  Just imagine the points he would put on the board in Denver, San Diego, New Orleans, - or even Miami or Tampa Bay.  Note to the Lions - GET HIM THE BALL!

All that being said, I think he’ll get about 5 catches for 80 yards and a score.  15 to 20 points.

If you’re keeping score, the players I mentioned above should total about 100 points.  I think I’ll need about 30 more….

Antonio Gates is another crap shoot.  He can get 20 points - or 2.  I’ll hope (and settle) for 10.  I seriously thought about starting Bo Scaife this week, but I think the Titans will be able to run all over the Lions, so Collins won’t be throwing very much.  Gates is the safer play.

Matt Bryant is kicking against the Saints this week.  New Orleans is close to the bottom (26th) in points allowed, so Bryant should get some field goals and a few XP’s.  10 points.

The Titans defense should rack up some points this week, with bunch of sacks on Culpepper and a pick or four.  I think Detroit will score (if they can get the ball to Megatron) but maybe I can get 7 to 10 points out of them.

That puts me at 125 to 130 points.  But I haven’t talked about my second RB yet.  That’s because right now I have no fucking clue who it’ll be!

If Bush is out, I’ll probably go with Pierre Thomas.  If Bush plays, he’ll probably be too limited to get many points - but he’ll take points away from Thomas….

I currently have Justin Fargas in my lineup, but I can’t shake the feeling that he’s not gonna get a lot of carries now that McFadden is healthy.  But Oakland is going against KC, so there may be enough rushing yards for both.

The other option is Stephen Jackson.  As of right now (11:55 pm ET Wednesday) he’s expected to play this week.  But will he be limited his first week back?  He’s also going against a good Miami rushing defense.  That hasn’t stopped NFL.com from projecting 21 points for him though!  I just don’t see that happening.

So I’m hoping whoever (Bush, Thomas, Fargas, or Jackson) I end up starting, that they get me 10 to 15 points.  Fortunately they all play on Sunday, so I probably won’t decide until just before 1pm on Sunday.  I’ll read a lot between now and then (especially the local New Orleans and St Louis papers) and watch the pregame shows to see what the pro’s think, but I think it’ll come down to a gut call at the deadline.

So with any luck at all, I’ll get about 135 points.  After looking through my opponent’s lineup (McNabb, Ronnie Brown, Hillis, Fitzgerald, Wayne, Lance Moore, Cooley, Elam, and Bucs DST) I think he’ll get about 120 points - although Brown could easily go off against a pitiful Rams rushing D.  Brown could get 40 points instead of 20 and make this whole exercise meaningless.

But I’m doing my best to put the best possible lineup out there, because all that matters in the end is if I win or lose.  Just win baby!

gk

Just kidding - I think!  I saw a reference to Somali Pirates and CitiGroup in the Daily Reckoning today and couldn’t resist copying the concept here.  Just thought it would make a cool headline I guess.

But then I got to thinking….  What if?  What if the government hadn’t spent another $302 billion - yes, this second bailout of CitiGroup (they already blew $25 billion that we gave them last month) - to bail out CitiGroup?  Their stock had tanked so far that a few pirates with an oil tanker held hostage probably could’ve bought the whole company.

Why they’d want it is beyond me though.  Citi has trillions in mortgages, with over $1 trillion that they’ve kept off the books.  The bailout from the Feds (it’s our money!) gives Citi $20 billion cash, and guarantee’s up to $302 billion of the toxic crap they’ve been claiming as assets on their balance sheet.

We should have let them fail.  Yes it would be a mess and they would take other banks down with them - so what?  They deserve to fail, not be rewarded with billions in tax dollars.  This is just encouraging more of the same.

And wasting our money, which we don’t have (the feds are broke!) so every dollar we’re using to bail out Citi is literally being printed out of thin air.  Last month alone, the Feds “created” over $1 trillion.  You think you’ve seen inflation?  Unless you’ve been in Argentina or Zimbabwe, you have know idea what’s headed our way.  I don’t either, but I guarantee that we’re all going to regret this in a few years.

gk

I don’t have time to get into all of the reasons that George W. Bush will go down in history as one of the worst Presidents ever, but the Knoxville News Sentinel captured part of it in an editorial today.  His mind boggling deficits.

In case you’ve forgotten, we had a surplus (fake though it may have been do to counting Social Security receipts as general revenue) but overall the federal government took in more money than it spent in 1998, 1999, and 2000.

Bush not only blew the surplus, he’s run the highest deficits in history!  The only President who comes close to being as fiscally irresponsible is his dad - Mr,. “Read my lips, no new taxes” - who also sucked.

From the News Sentinel:

In 1998, thanks to a healthy tension between a Democratic president and a Republican Congress, the country began running budget surpluses.

That lasted until George W. Bush took office. He saw a projected 10-year federal surplus of $5.6 trillion as a problem, a sign that taxpayers had been “overcharged.” He certainly solved that problem.

The interest on the federal deficit alone is $451 billion in 2008.  Bush is adding $1 trillion to the deficit this year alone - not counting the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan!  For some reason, Bush doesn’t think those billions (it’s gotta be close to $1 trillion by now) should count.  Huh?

Please go away George.  Really, I won’t be mad if you left office early and let the White House janitor run the show for a few months - he CAN’T do any worse than you are doing!

I titled this post “Bush sucks part 1″ because there’s a LOT more to back up my assertion that Bush is the worst President we’ve ever had, but I don’t feel like doing all the research tonight.  Just pick a subject - economy, growth of the federal government, starting a needless war to settle a family fued, overly intrusive rules and regulations on business (does Sarbannes Oxley - SOX - ring a bell?), unconstitutional wiretaps, imprisonment without charges, etc.

Bush makes lame-brain Carter look like a genius!  And that’s way to much to put into one post, so I’ll add parts to this as I get to them before Bush leaves office.

gk

11 weeks have gone by in the NFL so far this year, and I’m lucky enough to be 11-0 in my 12 team PPR fantasy league.  I don’t know how, because both Steven Jackson and Reggie Bush (my leading scorers through the first 7 weeks) have been out since week 8….

Anyway, our playoffs start next week so just one more win and I’ll be undefeated in the regular season.  I’ve had the #1 playoff seed locked up for a couple of weeks, so I’ve been making roster adjustments based on matchups in weeks 13 and 14.  Nothing major, just tweaking.

Things like picking up dropping kicker Matt Prater and picking Matt Bryant because Bryant has indoors cream puff matchups against Detroit and New Orleans the next 2 weeks, dropping WR Mark Bradley and picking up RB Antonio Pittman since Jackson may be out through the end of our playoffs, and dropping RB Chester Taylor and picking up WR Donnie Avery for some depth at WR.

I hope I can pull out a win this week and go undefeated but I’m doubtful of that.  Both Bush and Jackson are still out (well, Bush MAY play, but I probably won’t start him the first week back because who knows how much work he’ll get) and both Roddy White and Calvin Johnson are listed as questionable this week.

My WR’s have carried me this year.  I have Boldin (picked up in a trade for Housh the week after Boldin was injured), Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, and Donnie Avery.  We can start 3 WR’s and 2 RB’s, or 2 WR’s and 3 RB’s, so I need at least 2 healthy - and preferably 3.  In a PPR league, very few RB’s score more points than good WR’s - a lesson it seems some in my league haven’t yet learned.  They insist on starting 3 RB’s even when they have good WR’s on their bench.

For RB’s, I have the aforementioned Jackson and Bush, plus Antonio Pittman, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Johnson.  Johnson really came through for me a few times early in the year, but he hasn’t done much the past 2 weeks.  And he’s going against the Jets 4th ranked rushing defense this week.

That brings me to my main point for this week.  Look at your match ups!  Almost everyone on my team is going against tough defenses this week, so I don’t know what to expect.  Here are some examples:

• White is facing the Panther’s 6th ranked passing defense.
• Calvin Johnson has Tampa Bay and their 3rd ranked passing D.
• Boldin - and my QB Warner - have the Giants 4th ranked passing defense.
• Pierre Thomas (or possibly Bush) have the #1 ranked Green Bay rushing defense to face.
• Chris Johnson has the 4th ranked Jets rushing defense.
• Pittman has the 6th ranked Bears rushing defense.
• Antonio Gates is facing the Colt’s 5th ranked passing defense.

So my choices are pretty limited - especially since both White and Calvin Johnson are listed as questionable as I write this on Friday night.

I think I’m going to need about 105 points to win this week.  My team has averaged about 130 points per week this year, with 169 being the high in week 8, and 120 the low in week 1.  But because all my guys are facing tough defenses this week, I think this will be my lowest scoring week of the year.  Here’s how I hope to get 105 points this week.

My best guess is that Warner and Boldin will be fine - I’m expecting 20 to 25 points from both of them.  Say 45 points combined.

Calvin Johnson is another must start if he plays.  He always seems to get at least 15 points and he has the potential for a monster game every week - no matter who tries to cover him.  He’s plain awesome - imagine what he could do with a real QB throwing the ball to him!  I’m hoping for 15 points.

Roddy White is another WR who always seems to score in double digits no matter who the opposition is.  He has a “deep back bruise” whatever that is, but if he plays he’s money.  Another 15 points.

Donnie Avery is my backup at WR this week if either White or Johnson don’t play.  He should have a nice game against the Bears 30th ranked passing defense - if Bulger can stay upright long enough to throw it to him.  But I expect 15 points from him - with the possibility of a bigger game if he can break one or two for a touchdown.

So between Warner, Boldin, and Johnson/White/Avery (pick 2 depending on who starts) I’m hoping for 75 points.  My RB’s Thomas, Johnson, and Pittman (again pick 2) suck this week, and I may be hoping for too much to expect 15 points combined.

That would bring me to 90 points, meaning I need another 15 to 20 points from my TE (Gates), kicker (Bryant) and defense (Tennessee).  With any luck, Gates will get 10 points, Bryant will get 7, and the Titans D will get 5.  That would put me at 112 points, and I hope that’s enought to win!

Good luck to all this week,

gk

I ran across this in today’s Daily Reckoning.  It’s a snip from Bill Bonner’s article titled

The Fall of Wall Street: Innocent Frauds and Armed Robberies

It’s good stuff!  Please take a minute to read it because it explains a lot in just a few paragraphs.

gk

From the day of its founding in 1913, the Fed’s assets – the foundation capital of the U.S. banking system – grew, reaching $1 trillion on the 24th of September, 2008. But then, something extraordinary happened. Something breathtaking. And for a classical economist – something incredibly reckless. In the next six weeks, the Fed added another trillion. And the head of the Dallas Branch of the Fed said that he expected to add another trillion before the end of the year.

How does the Fed get these “assets?” Simple. It buys them. Where does it get the money to buy them? Simple again: it creates it. It makes it up. It conjures it out of nothing.

“If it comes from nothing,” you might wonder, “what could it really be worth?” But we’re not going to answer that question. We don’t have time. Besides, it takes us in such a deep metaphysical swamp, we’re afraid we may never slosh our way out…or at least not get out in time for lunch. Instead, we’re going to answer this question:

“If it was that easy, how come the Fed didn’t do it before?”

The answer to that is simple: because when the Fed inflates the money supply it risks inflating consumer prices. People don’t like that. They like it when asset prices go up. But not when gasoline and milk increase.

But now, no one is worried about consumer prices. In fact, the Fed is worried about deflation…about falling prices. Bernanke knows what happens when consumer prices begin to fall. Consumers stop spending – knowing that they will be able to get a better deal in the future. That further depresses the economy…and pretty soon it’s the ‘90s again and you’re back in Tokyo. So the Fed has begun a huge program of monetary inflation, intended to offset Mr. Market’s price-cutting.

And now another question: Isn’t there some risk that the Fed will overdo it?

Oh, dear reader…that’s a puffball of a pitch. If we can’t hit that, you can take our laptop away…you can break our sword…and send us back to the dugout.

Remember what happened in the slump of the early 2000s? Alan Greenspan panicked…cut rates to 1%…and left them there for more than a year. He gave the market the wrong medicine at the wrong time…and then delivered such a horse-sized dose, it set off the biggest bubble in mankind’s whole bubbly history.

Now, it’s a different kind of slump…a credit slump. And once again, the Fed is on the scene, like a quack doctor at the side of a heart-attack victim. This time, he’s giving stronger medicine…not just a 1% lending rate, but actual monetary inflation. Trillions of dollars worth of it.

For the moment, Mr. Market is taking away dollars faster than the Bernanke Fed is replacing them. That could continue…for a few months…or even for several years. But it won’t continue forever.

And here, we affirm our unshakeable faith in the people who lead us. They are trying to cause inflation. Eventually, they will get the hang of it. They may shoot for 2% per year; but they are sure to overshoot. Money printers always do.

I don’t know what news people are seeing that encourages them to buy stocks.  I meant to post this last night but didn’t get the time, so here goes.

The DJIA went up over 500 points yesterday and I’ll be damned if I can figure out why.  I kept an eye on the news headlines during the day, and here’s what they looked like at 2:45pm ET - just before the market skyrocketed into the close.  Here are the top headlines on MarketWatch.com as displayed by my “My Yahoo” page yesterday:

· Intel, H-P, Dell lead tech-sector losses - 14 minutes ago

· Citigroup looks for a new fall guy - 14 minutes ago

· Economic clouds could thwart some Obama energy promises - 14 minutes ago

· Energy stocks flirt with gains in volatile session - 14 minutes ago

· Chrysler’s survival difficult without government aid: CEO - 14 minutes ago

· GE shares fall back to 1996 levels on financing-cost concerns - 14 minutes ago

· U.S. stocks bounce back some after hitting new lows - 14 minutes ago

· Shares of Citigroup, Bank of America sink to decade-plus lows - 14 minutes ago

· Treasurys steady after 30-year bond auction - 14 minutes ago

· Gold dips below $700 as traders take more money off the table - 14 minutes ago

And here’s what the topr Reuters Business news were at the same time:

Jobless claims hit 25-year high, imports plunge - 1 hour ago

• The number of U.S. workers drawing jobless benefits hit a 25-year high this month and imports suffered a record fall in September, according to reports on Thursday that underscored a rapid drop-off in…

  · Stocks cut losses; energy offsets tech drag - 36 minutes ago

  Stocks cut losses on Thursday, sending the Dow and S&P 500 back briefly into positive territory, as investors scoured the market for beaten-down shares, including those of energy companies, offsetting…

  · Top hedge funds see more rules ahead for industry - 53 minutes ago

  Some of the world’s richest and most powerful hedge fund managers told U.S. lawmakers on Thursday that they support greater transparency for the secretive industry, but offered divergent views on …

  · GE shares tumble, company confirms 2009 dividend - 1 hour ago

  General Electric Co (GE.N) confirmed on Thursday it plans to pay a dividend through the end of 2009, but shares of the U.S. conglomerate remained down sharply.

  · Goldman suspends GM rating, Chrysler urges aid - 53 minutes ago

  Goldman Sachs suspended its rating on General Motors Corp on Thursday and said the automaker needs at least $22 billion in federal aid, while Chrysler said it would be “very difficult to survive&…

  · RIM co-CEO says market environment is “intense” - 50 minutes ago

  The current market environment is rife with challenges and requires careful planning of strategy, the co-CEO of Research In Motion (RIM.TO)(RIMM.O) said on Thursday as an analyst warned that sales of …

  · Citigroup board says supports its chairman - 39 minutes ago

  Citigroup Inc’s (C.N) board of directors said it supports its chairman and a newspaper report that said it was considering replacing him was “completely erroneous.”

  · Oil rises 4 percent on OPEC, equity market rebound - 9 minutes ago

  Oil jumped over 4 percent on Thursday as OPEC seemed poised to cut production again later this month and equity markets rebounded.

  · Lawmakers challenge big banks on bailout funds - 36 minutes ago

  Senators asked the nation’s biggest banks on Thursday to explain how they are using the billions of taxpayer dollars provided to them under a massive government bailout program. The answers were m…

  · Qualcomm halts UMB project, sees no major job cuts - 11 minutes ago

  Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O), seeking to cut costs in the face of slowing demand for cell phones, has stopped developing a next-generation wireless technology called Ultra Mobile Broadband and is making smal…

There’s not a single bit of good news hitting the wires, but yet the market reverses course and ends up almost 1000 points higher than the low for the day.  Makes no sense to me, but I don’t see anyway investors can continue to ignore the news that says earnings are falling dramatically.  At some point the “P” needs to adjust to the dramatic drop we’re seeing in the “E” in order to bring the Price/Earnings ratio back in line.

gk

I knew the Vols were bad this year, that they have played some of the worst football I’ve ever seen from a major program, that their play calling on offense was horrid (Hey Fulmer - play Madden sometime!) but even I didn’t expect them to lose to a bad Wyoming team.  At home.

Here’s something to think about when pondering just how bad the Vols are this year.  Wyoming ranks 119th (out of 119) in scoring offense, and 94th in scoring defense.  Stats are from the NCAA web site for Wyoming.

Tennessee is ranked a pitiful 114th in offense, and 25th in defense.  I thought Fulmer was a great recruiter?  If he’s got such great talent on the team, he must REALLY suck as a coach!

Good thing there are only 2 games left this year (against Vandy and Kentucky) so he’ll avoid the embarrassment of double-digit losses - but only because the Vols will end up 3 and 9 because there aren’t any more games to lose.

Let’s put it this way - whoever is chosen to replace Fulmer can’t be any worse.   I know squat about coaching football.  I’ve never even played football.  But I could hire an offensive coordinator and let him design an offense to suit the personell on the team.  Evidently Fulmer can’t.

Why wait to replace him?  Get his fat ass out of town (on a very sturdy rail!) and get a head start on next year.  He’s gonna lose the next two games anyway - why wait?

gk

I thought the headlines on Friday were interesting.  There was ZERO good news about the economy, and all the economic and earnings reports were worse than expected.  But the stock market went up.  Makes no sense to me.

Here are the top headlines from Reuters Business news as of 12:57pm (ET) yesterday.

GM, Ford losses worse than expected, burning cash - 33 minutes ago

• General Motors Corp and Ford Motor Co reported far deeper-than-expected quarterly losses on Friday, and said their rate of cash burn was accelerating, as an extended slump in car sales raised question…

  · Pending home sales fall, tight credit bites - 18 minutes ago

  Pending sales of existing homes fell in September, reversing the previous month’s gains, as access to credit tightened, a private report showed on Friday, adding more gloom to the broader economic…

  · Bargain hunters buoy stocks, but GM slides - 10 minutes ago

  Stocks rose on Friday as investors followed two days of losses in the mood to buy beaten-down sectors, including energy and technology, offsetting a blitz of bleak news indicating economic gloom.

  · Job losses soar, jobless rate at 14-year high - 1 hour ago

  U.S. employers slashed an unexpectedly steep 240,000 jobs from payrolls last month and the jobless rate shot up to a 14-1/2-year high, the government said on Friday in a report underscoring the econom…

  · Microsoft CEO pours cold water on Yahoo interest - 2 hours ago

  Microsoft Corp Chief Executive Steve Ballmer dismissed speculation the software giant might still be interested in buying Yahoo Inc, sending shares of the Internet company down 14 percent.

  · Paulson considering all options for TARP funds - 30 minutes ago

  Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is considering “all options” regarding implementation of the $700 billion financial rescue plan, including areas of the financial sector beyond traditional b…

  · JPMorgan sees consumer loan defaults rising - 2 hours ago

  JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) said on Friday it expects consumer loan defaults to increase in the current quarter and sees higher loan loss provisions.

  · Oil rises as U.S. jobs data hits dollar - 43 minutes ago

  Oil prices rose on Friday as the dollar slumped following bleak employment data in the United States, the world’s top energy consumer.

  · Sprint suffers loss as customers flee, shares slump - 36 minutes ago

  Sprint Nextel Corp (S.N), the No. 3 U.S. mobile service, posted a third-quarter loss and a 12 percent drop in revenue as customers fled to rival services.

  · Major banks ask Citadel to post more collateral: report - 28 minutes ago

  Citadel Investment Group, one of the largest hedge funds, is being asked by several major banks to post additional collateral to cover big losses on its investments, the Wall Street Journal said, citi…

Just had to post this here.  It’s a quote from PigskinAddiction.com from a story about the week 8 games.  Great site for humorous takes on fantasy football.

I don’t know where to begin. The Bengals are the most balanced team in the league. The offense sucks, the defense sucks, special teams sucks, coaching sucks, and management sucks! 0 – 16 is not only possible, it’s almost a certainty. Congress is less dysfunctional than this group of maroons.

The Bengals actually seemed to be somewhat competitive during the first half (by Bengals standards), but they sank faster than my 401k in the second half. The Bengals have quit on Marvin completely now. The team just goes through the motions now, while Marvin stands there looking more confused than a Frenchman at an army surplus store.

See what I mean?  This is good stuff!  Check em out when you have a few minutes.

gk

Just a few thoughts on week 8 in the NFL regarding fantasy football.  The people I’ll talk about are mainly those I have on my team, or those who stand out to me in some way.

If anyone needs a one week fill in at RB3, give Cedric Benson a try.  He’s playing at Houston (who gives up big games to RB’s more often than Madden raves about Favre) but he’s basically worthless after that because he plays against Jacksonville, Philly, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore in the next 4 weeks.

Benson should get 15 to 20 touches for 60 to 80 yards and a couple of receptions - possibly even a TD.  Not great stats, but in the neighborhood of 8 to 12 points.

Another good possibility is Leon Washington.  Thomas Jones gets most of the carries for the Jets, but KC is bad enough that Washington will get his chances too.  Plus a few receptions because he comes in on passing situations.  60 to 80 yards, 4 or 5 receptions, probably a TD.  10 to 15 points in a PPR league.  (I picked up Washington this week to use in case Steven Jackson is a last minute scratch.)

I also have Reggie Bush at RB and he was the #1 point scorer in our PPR league unril he got hurt.  Since I also have Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson at RB, I’m not hurting too bad, but I’ve debated all week whether or not to pick up Stecker or Thomas - McAllister isn’t available, and reports are that he’s about to be suspended for 4 games for a prohibited substance (steriods) violation.

So I keep wavering on picking up Stecker or Thomas.  Stecker is the better receiver, but Thomas is a better RB.  This REALLY matters in a PPR league - not so much in standard leagues.  If Duece is suspended, Thomas is a no brainer to get lots of touches.   My gut says that Stecker is the better add, but I think I’m just gonna wait and see how it plays out this weekend in London.  The Saints are playing the Chargers (with a terrible pass defense) so I’ll just hold off and see if Stecker gets enough receptions to matter.

If the reports are true and Duece is suspended for 4 games starting next week, Thomas is a no brainer to pick up.  He was the main workhorse last year when both Duece and Bush were out, and he’d resume that role this year.

I have the Titans DST, but they’re playing Indy this week, and I’m not betting against Peyton Manning.  Sure, the Titans will probably shut down Indy’s running game - but that just means Manning will throw more often.  That’s not good for the Titans DST.  They might get a pick or 2, but Manning will complete it enough times to Clark, Wayne, and Harrison (in that order) that I wouldn’t get many points.  So I picked up the Jets DST.

While I’m on the subject of Indy, their rushing defense is ranked 28th.  Yes, I’m starting Chris Johnson this week!

Back to the DST discussion - The Jets are going against KC this week at home.  KC is without Croyle and Huard, so Thigpen is their QB.  They also don’t have Larry Johnson again, so the only legit offensive weapons they have are Gonzalez and Bowe.  The Jets should be able to contain them without too much of a problem - and all those backup starters are bound to turn it over a few times.   The Chiefs will score 10 points max, and I’m actually expecting them to be shut out.

The RB situation in New England is also something to watch.  Maroney is out for the year, Sammy Morris is hurt and probably won’t play (if he does play he won’t get all the touches) so who’s gonna be Da Man for the Patriots?

I hate trying to remember “BenJarvus Green-Ellis” so I hope it’s Faulk, but who knows?  The Patriots are about like the Bronco’s and Raiders when it comes to knowing what to expect at running back, so I’m taking a wait and see on this one.

Anquan Boldin is back after a 3 week absence due to a sinus fracture - but I’m not starting him this week.  Reports are that he’d lost 10 pounds on a liquid diet while his jaw was wired shut.  He might be good to go, but I think I’ll wait another week before putting him back in my lineup.

Speaking of the Cardinals, Warner has been everything I expected this year.  But he’s going against the Panthers this week.  After seeing how the Panthers shut down the Saints last week, Warner is gonna be benched for me this week - with or without Boldin.  I have Trent Edwards for a backup, and he should do fine against Miami’s 27th ranked passing defense.

Note to everyone on the Steve Slaton bandwagon - ride him for one more week.  He’s going against Cincy this week, but he has Minnesota and Baltimore after that.  Don’t even think about starting him for those games.

No one is better in fantasy than Westbrook - when he plays.  In a PPR league he’s Da Man.  But he’s banged up enough that (if you have him) you absolutely, positively must have Buckhalter as a handcuff.   If Westbrook doesn’t play, you can start Buckhalter with almost zero drop off in points.  By far the best handcuff in fantasyland.

Roddy White has been a stud so far this year, but he’ll be tested this week against Philly’s defense.  I’m still starting him, but I’m cutting my expectations for him this week.  Mainly because his rookie QB Ryan is gonna be under pressure all day.

That reminds me - those of you who like “Turner the Burner” better lower your expectations this week too.  Turner has been great against bad defenses, but he sucks against good ones.  Just saying.

I really like a couple of rookie WR’s, Josh Morgan and Donnie Avery.  I don’t own either right now, but I’m gonna be picking one of them up as soon as I drop the Jets DST on Tuesday.  I’ll grab another (or Camarillo) the next week when I drop Bo Scaife after Antonio Gates bye week in week 9.  And I’ll pick up another WR when Bush comes back about week 11.  In a PPR league, you cannot have too many WR’s.  Some may never start for you, but you gotta have em to play the matchups when you get to the playoffs.

Speaking of playoffs, they start in week 13 in my 12 team league.  It’s almost time to check out schedules to get the kickers and DST’s with the best matchups on my team.  I’m undefeated so far this year, so I’ve got the luxury of looking ahead right now.  By this time next week, I’ll be looking to see which kickers and DST’s has good looking matchups in weeks 13 and 14 - because that’s when it counts.

One last thought….  Never ever pick up a player without looking at the who they’re playing against during the time you expect them to be on your roster.  I don’t care who it is, a superstud RB is gonna have a bad day playing the Ravens or Vikings, and I’ve yet to see a QB or WR go off when playing Carolina.

gk

It was all over the headlines yesterday - existing home sales rose 5.5% (seasonally adjusted) from August.  The median price dropped too - down 9% to about $191K.  Good news right?  It IS good news except for one minor detail absolutely no one reported.  Here it is straight from the press release that everyone’s story is from:

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/ehs_rise_on_affordability
“Compared to a fairly small share of foreclosures or short sales a year ago, distressed sales are currently 35 to 40 percent of transactions.”

Oops - it seems that foreclosures are counted as sales, and foreclosures and short sales are about 35% of all sales right now.

A short sale is where the bank agrees to the sale and take less money than you owe on the mortgage as payment in full.  For example, if you owed $100K on your house but you could only sell it for $80K, the bank would take it.  Why would they do this?  Because getting 80% of the money it better than getting none and having to go to the expense of foreclosure.  Then the bank is stuck with it and they’ll still need to reduce the price to sell it.

So a short sale cuts out the foreclosure process - but it’s the same result:  The bank didn’t get paid back in full, so they need to writedown that loan and take the loss.  Then the CDS’s (Credit Default Swaps) that were written on that loan need to be written down and taken as losses, and the “Traunches” (pieces of mortgages packaged together for resale to investors) need to be written down, then the “Super Traunches” (bundled groups of Traunches) need to be written down, etc.

Look at the example in this Wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tranche
(From what I’ve read, this example is a simple simple one, but it illustratates how one debt is packaged and repackaged.)

CDS’s, Traunches, Super Traunches and dozens of other alphabet soup abbreviations are all forms of derivatives, and this is why just a few percent increase in foreclosures (or short sales) can cause hundreds of billions (we’re at about $1 trillion now) in writedowns and losses.  And that’s why we’re nowhere near seeing the end of huge losses, and that’s a big reason the stock market is tanking.

To give you an idea of the size of the writedowns (losses) that need to happen, it’s estimated that the derivative market totals about $500 trillion.  The total GDP of the entire world is about $55 trillion.  These debt instruments have been repackaged and resold and repackaged and resold so many times that they total about 10 times the entire world ecomony.  That’s why Buffett (Warren, not Jimmy) called them WMD’s.  And unlike the ones in Iraq, these actually exist,and they will go off.

gk

I’ve read many stories in the past few weeks about how hard it is to get a loan now.  All the stories are saying the same thing - banks aren’t lending, people can’t get loans, so the economy is tanking because people can’t borrow money to buy things.

Bullshit.  This past summer I had to replace my air conditioner (I chose a Trane heat pump and got rid of the natural gas furnace at the same time) and my refrigerator.  The heat pump (a Trane XLi15) cost about $7500 and the fridge was over $2000.

I don’t happen to have $10,000 just laying around so I shopped for financing and got 0% interest for 18 months on the heat pump, and 0% interest for 12 months on the fridge.   The interest rate on both loans will jump to over 18% after the intial promo runs out.

In looking at my budget, I probably won’t have both of them paid off before the promo rate runs out and the high interest part kicks in, so I decided to get a HELOC in order to pay the initial finance companies the reamining balance just before the 0% promo expires.

My house is worth about $200,000, and I only owe about $50,000 on the mortgage because when I moved to TN I used the proceeds from our house in MO as a down payment on this one.  So I’m not in over my head and I’ve got equity - even if the housing market here drops drastically.

Anyway, I called you my bank (First Tennessee) and they took an application over the phone.  They also called my employer to verify my salary and how long I’d been with the company.  They ran a credit check and asked a lot of questions about how much money I wanted ($10,000 line of credit) and what I wanted it for.

They called me back a few days later and said I was approved for a $25,000 HELOC, because they didn’t want to mess with a $10,000 line.  If you’ve read this far, here’s the kicker:

My interest rate is 1% BELOW Prime (as published in the WSJ).  Prime had been at 5% for a few months, but just this week (thanks to the Fed jacking up inflation by lowering it instead of raising it!) it dropped to 4.5%.  So my interest rate is currently 3.5%

And the 1% below prime margin is fixed.  I know the prime rate will go up and down, but my loan will always be 1% below prime.  And with Bush and Helicopter Ben at the controls, the interest rate isn’t going up anytime soon.  (And do you honestly think Obama or McCain will change the Fed cheap money policy?)

To sum it up, I not only got the money I was looking for, I got the money at an interest rate that is stupidly cheap.  First Tennessee is borrowing money from the Fed at 1.5% and loaning it to me at 3.5% - so they make 2% of every dime I borrow.

So the next time you read a story about how the banks aren’t lending money, or how tight credit has gotten - print it out and use it to wipe your ass - because that’s all it’s good for.

To say it another way, it’s easy to get a loan at ridiculously cheap rates - if you can afford to pay it back.  I’m assuming that if I owed more on my house than what it’s worth then the bank wouldn’t let me borrow any more against it - rightly so!

If you don’t have a job, you shouldn’t qualify for a loan.  If you are upside down on your house then you shouldn’t qualify for a loan against it.  If you make $40K/year and want to buy a $400,000 house, then you shouldn’t qualify for a loan.

In other words, banks are lending money - and they’re lending it at VERY low rates.  As long as you can afford to pay them back, which is how it should be.

If you can’t afford to pay them back, don’t bitch and moan about the banks not lending any money, because it’s simply not true!  And you’re stupid for thinking that they should loan you money that you can’t pay back.

So SHUT UP with the “tight credit” and “hard to qualify for a loan” stories.  You won’t get any sympathy from me.

gk

The DJIA dropped another 675 points today, bringing it down to 8579.  Exactly one year ago, it was at 14,164 - its’ all time high.  Aren’t you glad you pulled all your money out of the market last year?

What’s that you say?  You didn’t move to cash because you’re in this for the long term, you’re a buy and hold investor?  Oops!

According to a story on CNN.com today, “We are in a free fall right now and fundamentals have been thrown out the window,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors.

Ummm….  Wrong.  The “fundamentals” have NOT been thrown out the window Mr. Orlando - the fundamentals are what’s causing the drop.  We’re at the start of the 3rd quarter earnings season, and there’s no doubt that earnings will be drastically lower than Q3 of 07.

So stock prices HAVE to adjust to keep the price earnings ratio reasonable.  I guess the only question is how low earnings will be - which will tell us how low the stock prices will go.

With the latest drop, the S&P 500 is at a PE of about 12 - which is right about the long term mean.  We’ve been way above that for a long time, so I expect to see the PE “revert to the mean” long term, which means we need to go below a PE of 12 for awhile.  Possibly as low as 8 - which is what the ratio was back in the early 70’s and the great depression.

So, how low can we go?  Let me know if you have a guess.  I’m guessing maybe 7500?  But that’s just a guess.

gk

I ran across something very interesting today regarding the bailout bill that the Senate passed last night.  Here’s a story on Marketwatch.com that’s the tip of the iceberg.  It’s titled Can the ‘William Tell amendment’ save the bailout?

Here’s the first part of it: There can’t have been a more ridiculous bit of legal fluff in recent memory. Yet there it is, in plain view, as part of the much-ballyhooed Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 that’s been passed by the U.S. Senate.

That’s right - part of this “urgently needed” bailout of dumbasses is to exempt “certain wooden arrows designed for children” from the excise tax.

Don’t get me wrong - I don’t have anything against wooden arrows - and I mainly agree with anything regarding less taxes, but to claim that pork like this will make the bailout bill more likely to pass the House is (I hope!) just stupid.

The cost of the bill is up to an estimated $800 billion - but no one knows for sure.  They don’t know because it’s a pork laden monstrosity.

Title I of the”Paul Wellstone Mental Health and Addiction Equity Act of 2007″ (yes, that’s still the name of the bailout bill) establishes the Troubled Assets Relief Program.

The name TARP is appropriate, because basically they’re attempting to sweep all the toxic mortgages and derivatives that the brilliant Wall Street crowd invested in under a giant rug.  So I guess you could hide it under a TARP just as well….

I literally don’t know where to begin when talking about the pork in this bill.  I guess I’ll start at the top and work my way down to give you some idea of how bloated this thing has become.  It started as 3 pages.  It’s up to 442.

Here’s the text of the bill in PDF format from the GPO.  Please use this link to access the text of the bill.  I apologize, but the links below won’t work because of the stupid search engine Thomas uses.

Here are the first few “urgent” parts of the bill.  In reality, it’s just pork thrown in to get Representatives to vote for it:

SEC. 101. RENEWABLE ENERGY CREDIT.

SEC. 102. PRODUCTION CREDIT FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCED FROM MARINE RENEWABLES.

SEC. 103. ENERGY CREDIT.

SEC. 104. ENERGY CREDIT FOR SMALL WIND PROPERTY.

SEC. 105. ENERGY CREDIT FOR GEOTHERMAL HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS.

SEC. 106. CREDIT FOR RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENT PROPERTY.

SEC. 107. NEW CLEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY BONDS.

`SEC. 54C. NEW CLEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY BONDS.

SEC. 108. CREDIT FOR STEEL INDUSTRY FUEL.

That’s just the renewable energy section.  Just below that, we get these barrels of pork thrown at the coal industry:

SEC. 111. EXPANSION AND MODIFICATION OF ADVANCED COAL PROJECT INVESTMENT CREDIT.

SEC. 112. EXPANSION AND MODIFICATION OF COAL GASIFICATION INVESTMENT CREDIT.

SEC. 113. TEMPORARY INCREASE IN COAL EXCISE TAX; FUNDING OF BLACK LUNG DISABILITY TRUST FUND.

SEC. 114. SPECIAL RULES FOR REFUND OF THE COAL EXCISE TAX TO CERTAIN COAL PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS.

SEC. 115. TAX CREDIT FOR CARBON DIOXIDE SEQUESTRATION.

`SEC. 45Q. CREDIT FOR CARBON DIOXIDE SEQUESTRATION.

That should be enough pork thrown at energy projects right?  Remember, the whole purpose of this is to bail out the financial industry….  But you’d be wrong if that’s what you thought.  Take a look atthe part named Title II:

TITLE II–TRANSPORTATION AND DOMESTIC FUEL SECURITY PROVISIONS

SEC. 201. INCLUSION OF CELLULOSIC BIOFUEL IN BONUS DEPRECIATION FOR BIOMASS ETHANOL PLANT PROPERTY.

SEC. 202. CREDITS FOR BIODIESEL AND RENEWABLE DIESEL.

SEC. 203. CLARIFICATION THAT CREDITS FOR FUEL ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE AN INCENTIVE FOR UNITED STATES PRODUCTION.

SEC. 204. EXTENSION AND MODIFICATION OF ALTERNATIVE FUEL CREDIT.

SEC. 205. CREDIT FOR NEW QUALIFIED PLUG-IN ELECTRIC DRIVE MOTOR VEHICLES.

`SEC. 30D. NEW QUALIFIED PLUG-IN ELECTRIC DRIVE MOTOR VEHICLES.

SEC. 206. EXCLUSION FROM HEAVY TRUCK TAX FOR IDLING REDUCTION UNITS AND ADVANCED INSULATION.

SEC. 207. ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLE REFUELING PROPERTY CREDIT.

SEC. 209. EXTENSION AND MODIFICATION OF ELECTION TO EXPENSE CERTAIN REFINERIES.

SEC. 211. TRANSPORTATION FRINGE BENEFIT TO BICYCLE COMMUTERS.

Yup, more pork - this time thrown at the alternative energy crowd.  NOTE - I’m a proponent of alternative energy - I just don’t want the governemnt to fund it!

Let’s see, what’s next in this budget busting bailout bill….  Crap, more energy credits…

SEC. 301. QUALIFIED ENERGY CONSERVATION BONDS.

`SEC. 54D. QUALIFIED ENERGY CONSERVATION BONDS.

SEC. 302. CREDIT FOR NONBUSINESS ENERGY PROPERTY.

SEC. 303. ENERGY EFFICIENT COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS DEDUCTION.

SEC. 304. NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME CREDIT.

SEC. 305. MODIFICATIONS OF ENERGY EFFICIENT APPLIANCE CREDIT FOR APPLIANCES PRODUCED AFTER 2007.

SEC. 306. ACCELERATED RECOVERY PERIOD FOR DEPRECIATION OF SMART METERS AND SMART GRID SYSTEMS.

SEC. 307. QUALIFIED GREEN BUILDING AND SUSTAINABLE DESIGN PROJECTS.

SEC. 308. SPECIAL DEPRECIATION ALLOWANCE FOR CERTAIN REUSE AND RECYCLING PROPERTY.

Ok, I’ll skip on down and see what else there is….  O goody, Alternative Minimum Tax relief….  This is another good idea, but why is it in this bill?

SEC. 101. EXTENSION OF ALTERNATIVE MINIMUM TAX RELIEF FOR NONREFUNDABLE PERSONAL CREDITS.

SEC. 102. EXTENSION OF INCREASED ALTERNATIVE MINIMUM TAX EXEMPTION AMOUNT.

A little further down (believe it or not, I’m skipping entire sections!) we find gems such as: