Reading a NY Times story from Frank Rich titled After the Massachusetts Massacre in which Mr. Rich claims It was not a referendum on Barack Obama and  It was not a rejection of universal health care.   Umm, what rock has Mr. Rich been hiding under?

For days heading into the election, we heard over and over how Brown was campaigning as the 41st vote against health care and Coakley was campaigning as the 60th vote for health care.  I even heard Brown has a nickname “41″ because he claimed to be the 41st vote against everything Obama wanted.

I’m not sure what fantasy world Mr. Rich is living in, but it’s hard to trust the analysis and opinions of anyone who is able to make up their own view of reality so easily.

gk

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I mentioned this a few weeks ago, but it seems to be getting more and more likely that the Dems may be in for a replay of 1994.

In general, Americans don’t like politicians who go to extremes, and when any one party is in control, they ALWAYS go to extremes.  Clinton tried pushing through health care and it was a disaster for the Dems.  Bush got it in 2002 and pushed through the Iraq fiasco – which led to the current Dem majority.   Now it appears that Obama is heading down the same path.

You know things are bad for Democrats when the NY Times opinion page has 3 stories – and they are all complaining about Democrats.  Check them out.

The Lady and the Arlen – Gail Collins

They Still Don’t Get It – Bob Herbert

Mobs Rule – Charles Blow

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I was reading a Reuters story about the proposed budget in California tonight when I saw this:

Wheelchair-bound Christina Mills, 32, of Sacramento, California said disabled workers could not afford to have subsidies for assistants cut as the governor proposed.

“If they didn’t have home-care workers to help them get dressed in the morning, they wouldn’t be able to go to work.”

Hey Christina – that sucks doesn’t it?  It’s sad, but true – if you need someone else to pay for you to get to work, you’re not earning enough to make your job worth the investment in you!  It would be cheaper for everyone if you stayed home and we payed to take care of you there.  Plus, you wouldn’t be in denial about how much your work is actually worth.

Yes, it’s harsh.  But it’s also true.

gk

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Ran across this story in the NY Times tonight suggesting that the Dems  are going to have a hard time “defending their large Congressional majorities”  in the 2010 elections.  Interesting….  That’s the first I’ve heard one that subject, and it got me to thinking about the over reaching in Clinton’s first term, which led to the Contract with America and the Republican domination of congress for the next decade.

Could health care (and the resulting loss of individual and states rights) prove to be Obama’s defining moment as it was with Hillary care?  Stay tuned….

gk

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Just a few random thoughts from Week 10 as I’m watching the games.

Aaron Rodgers evidently ain’t too bright, cause he can’t count to “one thousand four”.  Watching the Dallas/Green Bay game and it’s pitiful watching him get hit time after time after 4 or 5 seconds.  In the NFL, you normally only get 3 seconds – throw the freaking ball Rodgers!  He deserves to get hurt playing that stupid.

With the defense GB has this year, they could be one of the best in the league if Rodgers would make a freaking decision and throw the ball in under 4 seconds.  Instead, the probably won’t even make the playoffs.

Darrelle Revis is pretty damn good….

I watched Maurice Jones-Drew fall down at the 1 instead of going in for the TD.  That sucked in two ways:

1) Jacksonville was trailing by one.  That would’ve been a brilliant play if they’d have been winning by one, but there are no sure things in the NFL.  Garrard might’ve fumbled the next snap, could have a bad snap on the kick, the kicker could miss, etc, etc, etc.  1o different things could’ve happened that would’ve caused Jacksonville to lose that game because of  that decision.  Even tho it worked out in the end, it was dumb.

2) I have MJD on my fantasy team.  Sonofabitch cost me 6 points. 

The Cardinals need to forget about the run.  They are UNSTOPPABLE when they are throwing on every down.  When they run they get out of rhythm and don’t look good at all.  Use your strengths!

Chris Johnson is officially the best RB in the league.  He not only got 132 rushing yards, he had 100 yards on 9 receptions.  He’s so much faster than everyone else on the field it’s crazy….  I tried to trade for him this week (offered Greg Jennings, Steve Breaston, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell for him to an owner with 3 #1 RB’s but only one good WR) but I didn’t get him.  Now the trade deadline in my league has passed.  Shit.

Reggie Bush could still be a superstar – if the Saints would use him like they did today.  He’s a slightly slower version of Chris Johnson.  Or maybe a larger version of Ray Rice. 

The Saints defense is much worse without Sharper and Porter – they better get them back soon or they’ll get beat very soon.

San Diego looks so good one minute and so bad the next.  If they could stay “good” they’d be a contender for the Super Bowl.  As it stands, they’re simply another team that’ll be happy to get into the playoffs.

One of the best things that could happen to the Seahawks is if Jones is out for awhile.  That way they could use Forsett and actually have a running game.

Hey Seattle – rushing 3 and dropping 8 into coverage will get your ass picked apart by Warner.   He makes mistakes if you pressure him.

We’re into the 4th quarter and Vincent Jackson still doesn’t have a catch.

Watched the various pre-game shows this morning, and most everyone (especially Fox) was ready to annoint the Cowboys as the NFC East Champs.  At one time that might have meant something.  But with the Giant’s, Eagles, and Redskins all looking so bad lately, not so much anymore.

gk

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The Berlin Wall came down.  Having spent time in Germany in 1983 and 1984, much of which was time spent preparing to destroy tactical nukes before the Soviets could get them when they came pouring through the Fulda Gap, it was a day I thought I’d never see.

I remember staying up all night, watching CNN live as people tore down sections, as people took sledge-hammers, screwdrivers, even rocks to the hated wall, tearing it down piece by piece.  Amazing.

At least 136 people died trying to cross the wall and get out of East Berlin.  I can’t put into words how impossible it seemed to me back in the early 80’s that the wall would come down without a war.

Reagan called the Soviet bluff – and the Soviet Bloc was exposed as a bluff when Reagan gave the famous speech.  Here’s an excerpt.

Where four decades ago there was rubble, today in West Berlin there is the greatest industrial output of any city in Germany–busy office blocks, fine homes and apartments, proud avenues, and the spreading lawns of parkland. Where a city’s culture seemed to have been destroyed, today there are two great universities, orchestras and an opera, countless theaters, and museums. Where there was want, today there’s abundance–food, clothing, automobiles–the wonderful goods of the Ku’damm.

From devastation, from utter ruin, you Berliners have, in freedom, rebuilt a city that once again ranks as one of the greatest on earth. The Soviets may have had other plans. But my friends, there were a few things the Soviets didn’t count on–Berliner Herz, Berliner Humor, ja, und Berliner Schnauze. [Berliner heart, Berliner humor, yes, and a Berliner Schnauze.]

In the 1950s, Khrushchev predicted: “We will bury you.” But in the West today, we see a free world that has achieved a level of prosperity and well-being unprecedented in all human history. In the Communist world, we see failure, technological backwardness, declining standards of health, even want of the most basic kind–too little food. Even today, the Soviet Union still cannot feed itself. After these four decades, then, there stands before the entire world one great and inescapable conclusion: Freedom leads to prosperity. Freedom replaces the ancient hatreds among the nations with comity and peace. Freedom is the victor.

And now the Soviets themselves may, in a limited way, be coming to understand the importance of freedom. We hear much from Moscow about a new policy of reform and openness. Some political prisoners have been released. Certain foreign news broadcasts are no longer being jammed. Some economic enterprises have been permitted to operate with greater freedom from state control.

Are these the beginnings of profound changes in the Soviet state? Or are they token gestures, intended to raise false hopes in the West, or to strengthen the Soviet system without changing it? We welcome change and openness; for we believe that freedom and security go together, that the advance of human liberty can only strengthen the cause of world peace. There is one sign the Soviets can make that would be unmistakable, that would advance dramatically the cause of freedom and peace.

General Secretary Gorbachev, if you seek peace, if you seek prosperity for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if you seek liberalization: Come here to this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!

Gorbachev didn’t tear down the wall, but the East Germans did.

gk

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I haven’t posted in what seems like forever.  It’s a combination of work and a lot going on personally, but really just apathy on my part.  I’m spending a lot of time on fantasy football and stuff with my kids, and I hate saying the same things over and over in a different way.  “Yes Johnny, the government is getting bigger each and every day and I think it sucks.”  That’s the basic message of most of what I have to say.

But I read a post from The Daily Reckoning today that made quite a bit of sense in looking at the future in an optimistic light by comparing it to what we faced in the 1970’s.  I’ve copied it here because it’s worth reading to put things into perspective.  Enjoy!

gk

And finally today, back to Bill…

Our old friend John Mauldin answered last week’s note. Our point was that our children face a different world than we did. From what we can make out, it will be a tougher world. Everything was looking up with the baby boomers. Especially in the lives of the luckiest of them – your editor and John included. Is everything still going up? The US economy? The power and wealth of the US empire? And how about our children? John and I started out with nothing to lose. Our children can slip down as well as slide up. John has today’s Daily Endnote for us. Please enjoy…

It’s More Than Half Full.

Ok, Bill, let’s review those wonderful days from whence we sprang, so fraught with the advantages of having nothing. So potent with opportunity. It was the middle of the ’70s when we started our careers. Inflation was high and rising. The Soviets were seen as a major threat. Japan was beating our brains out and buying everything, even if nailed down (like Pebble Beach and New York skyscrapers). I had to borrow money at 15% (or more) to buy paper in order to meet customer demands for printing. And guess what? The banks got into trouble and called loans willy-nilly. (My bank even called my mother and threatened her to pay my loan – against written agreements – and she did. Evil sons of bitches. The more things change… And they delightedly did fail! Not that I hold a grudge.)

There were multiple successive and deeper recessions. Gold was rising as the dollar was seen as a joke. Howard Ruff (a good friend to both of us when we were starting out!) and almost every newsletter writer were telling people to buy gold and freeze-dried food to protect themselves against a near certain economic, if not apocalyptic, catastrophe. Unemployment was high and rising for a decade.

The correct answer to the question, “Where will the jobs come from?” back then was “I don’t know, but they will.” And it is the correct answer today.

In 20 years, no one will want to come back to the halcyon days of 2005. Our kids (all 13 of them) are getting ready to live through what will be the most exciting period in human history. There will be a century’s worth of change, measured by the standard of the 20th century, just in the next ten years, and then we will double that pace in the next ten after that. Medical miracles that will mean our kids and grandkids will live a lot longer than their dads, although I intend to be writing well into my 80s, like our mutual hero Richard Russell.

There will be whole new industries developed in the US. How do I know that? Follow the money. The rest of the world spends a fraction on research and development that we do. Where do you go if you are looking for venture capital?

Do I care if the Chinese and the “developing” worlds are far better off, relatively speaking, than the US in 20 years? Not a whit. Good on them. I hope they make discoveries and inventions and new businesses that benefit us all. But we are not going into some long dark night. We, and our kids, get to choose how we respond to what is the reality of the day.

Our nation had to almost hit the wall in 1980 before a Volker could come along and force us to take the pain of recessions to beat back inflation. And we will have to come perilously close to the wall this time before we take action as a nation. Way to close for comfort. Maybe you are right, and we have a soft depression. I hope not, but even so, the world will be better, far better, in 20 years, with far more opportunities than today.

It was not fun starting new businesses in the ’70s and early ’80s. But we did. I remember coming to Baltimore and being (literally) afraid to get out of the car to visit your offices in the slums. But that was what you could afford. A far cry from the chateau in Ouzilly.

I lived in a small mobile home. Tiffani was born there, and we converted part of the kitchen to be her bedroom. (Yes, I was white “trailer trash.”) But I got up every morning just like you did and killed as many alligators as I could. The rest had to wait till the next day.

And that is the legacy our kids have. They know what it is to wade into the swamp every morning. Never quitting. In thinking about this, you may be the father I respect the most. You have raised your kids to be multi-lingual children of the world. What a work ethic. How did you get them to scrape window shutters at your chateaus? (I actually saw this, and my kids marveled.

Thereafter I threatened to make them go live with you when they did not act right!)

You have given your kids the opportunity to follow their dreams, even demanded that they do so. And such dreams they (and mine) have. Will they succeed? Who knows? But they will go at it with gusto, in a world with more opportunities than you and I ever imagined 40 years ago. And, oh boy, were we optimists back then. How else could we have done what we did? If we believed the rhetoric that the world was coming to an end, would we have dared to venture out?

You cannot have raised your kids to be such bold adventurers without instilling in them a certain high level of optimism. I am going to out you, Mr. Bonner. You present yourself to your readers as a bona fide end of the world pessimist. But you are a really and truly a closet optimist. Your whole business empire (and what an empire it has become!) is based on finding people who are optimists, in the sense that they think they can actually get people to send them money for what they write. Which they do! Even if it is to read why the world will come to an end, which it thankfully never does.

You are right in this: it is personal gumption that makes or breaks us. There are those who started out with less than we did (hard to imagine but true) and made a lot more. And there are those who started out with far more and made less. But there are very few who are happier than either of us. Or luckier.

Our kids? It is not the times which dictate the man (or daughter!), but the response of the man which dictates his own time. Today has a brighter future for someone young than any other time in history, whether they are in the US or Brazil or China. They just have to seize it.

And as our kids do just that, and as the millions of kids of those who read us do so, and the billions of kids who are just now getting ready to bust loose all work to achieve their dreams, the world is going to be a far more fantastic place. Smooth ride? Not a chance. We didn’t get one, and in thinking through history, there have not been many smooth rides. Why should we think we will get any better? Our kids will just have to live with our generational (and individual) iniquities, government debt and all, and figure out how to master their own fates. But if I had a choice to take the ’70s or today? In less than a heart’s beat I choose today. And I bet you would too!

Regards,

John Mauldin
for The Daily Reckoning

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Many have been warning of this pending implosion for years, but evidently it’s just now hitting the major news organizations.  How did anyone ever think that a mortgage that didn’t even cover the interest charges each month was a good idea?

From the numbers I’ve seen, 2010 and 2011 are the years when most of these Option ARM’s are due to reset to “real” interest rates.  House prices aren’t done bottoming yet.

gk

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Tennessee starts the year kicking some butt.  They slaughtered that perennial national title contender football powerhouse Our Lady of Mercy – Umm, I mean Western Kentucky.  At home.

What’s the deal with supposedly “power” conferences padding stats by playing whatever area high school team needs some cash?

Props to Alabama, Georgia, and LSU for actually playing college football teams in their openers.   The rest of the SEC proved absolutely nothing.

What does it tell you about your team when they beat Miami of Ohio, Western Carolina, Missouri State, or that other contender – Charleston Southern University?

Nothing.  And that’s the amount of respect I give teams who schedule pushovers.  If you want to be a big time team, you need to play big time opponents.   The SEC stayed on the porch opening weekend.

gk

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Just reading a player news post on NFL.com and saw this note about Derrick Mason: “He is expected to contribute the most among players who have returned from retirement.”

Sorry, I don’t see anyway to link directly to the post, so you may have to search for it.  But you gotta love the dry humor of the writer who evidently isn’t a fan of  Favre.

gk

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